Macro & Regime Dashboard
Data cached 15 min · Source: yfinanceCurrent Regime
BEAR
Falling Growth + Rising Inflation
Growth: FALLING
Inflation: RISING
Growth FALLING:
S&P 500 above 200-SMA (7718.6 vs 7141.76) · RSPD/RSPS BEARISH (ratio 1.7986, below 50-SMA, below 200-SMA) · IWF/IWD BEARISH (ratio 0.4790, below 50-SMA, below 200-SMA)
Inflation RISING:
Nominal bonds outperforming TIPS (TIP-IEF spread: +0.5%) · Oil rising (Brent $96, +10.6% 1M)
Confidence
20%
Factor Tilt Recommendation
Recommended
LOW_VOL
DEFENSIVE
GOLD
Avoid
GROWTH
MOMENTUM
CYCLICALS
Stagflationary bear: growth failing (1/3 bullish — RSPD/RSPS BEARISH = offense losing to defense, IWF/IWD BEARISH = growth losing to value) while inflation still rising (Oil $96, TIPS > nominal bonds). Avoid momentum: skewness = -1.43, crashes during regime changes (Daniel-Moskowitz 2016). Avoid cyclicals: they depend on growth acceleration which is absent. Low-vol factor has highest risk-adjusted returns in bear markets (Ang et al. 2006, Sharpe ~0.8). Gold hedges both inflation and equity drawdowns. VIX at 15.
Suggested Asset Allocation
Stocks
25%
Bonds
20%
Commodities
30%
Cash
25%
Preserve capital. Overweight gold and cash. Minimal equity exposure.
Market Signals
S&P 500 vs SMA200
ABOVE
7719 / SMA 7142
VIX Fear Index
15.2
NORMAL
Yield Curve (10Y-3M)
NORMAL
Spread +1.03%
Credit Spreads (HYG/LQD)
STABLE
HYG +0.2% / LQD -0.4%
Brent Oil
$96.28
+10.6% 1M
Gold
$4477
+2.6% 1M
US Dollar (DXY)
99.1
RISING
VIX Term Structure
CONTANGO
Normal (VIX3M > VIX)
Market Sentiment
60
GREED
Extreme FearFearNeutralGreedExtreme Greed
| Component | Score | Signal | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| VIX Level |
65
|
GREED | VIX 15.2 — normal volatility (15–20) |
| VIX Term Structure |
75
|
GREED | VIX3M/VIX = 1.159 — strong contango (normal market) |
| Market Breadth |
53
|
NEUTRAL | 52.7% of stocks above SMA-50 |
| Credit Spreads |
70
|
GREED | HYG/LQD 0.7505 above 20-SMA 0.7495 — spreads tightening (risk-on) |
| Safe Haven (Gold) |
25
|
FEAR | GLD 1M return +4.4% — rising gold (safe-haven demand elevated) |
| Price Momentum |
70
|
GREED | SPY 770.19 above 200-SMA 709.87 — trend is up |
60-Day Sentiment History (VIX-based proxy)
Key Correlations (30-day rolling)
| Pair | Correlation | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
|
Oil — TASI
Petro-state sensitivity
|
-0.113 | Near zero |
|
DXY — Gold
Should be negative
|
-0.227 | Near zero |
|
10Y Yield — S&P 500
Regime dependent
|
-0.339 | Moderate negative |
|
VIX — S&P 500
Should be negative
|
+0.221 | Near zero |
Divergences & Risk Appetite
Risk Appetite
Neutral
Risk Off
Risk On
VIX: Low — risk-on environment
Credit: Credit spreads stable
Safe haven: Gold rising, 10Y yield falling
Divergences
Oil vs TASI — DIVERGING
Oil +10.6% vs TASI +0.2% (1 month). Oil moved higher — watch for TASI catch-up or oil mean-reversion.
Saudi Market Macro
Oil vs Budget Breakeven
Brent
$96.28
Breakeven
$96
SURPLUS
+0.3% vs breakeven
USD / SAR
3.75
Pegged — SAMA mirrors Fed policy. No devaluation risk under Vision 2030.
TASI Market Breadth
Above SMA-50
64%
Above SMA-200
79%
Breadth signal:
MODERATE
(14 stocks sampled)
Seasonality
NORMAL
No major seasonal distortions. Normal market conditions apply.
TASI Sector Rotation (1-Month)
| Sector | 1M Performance | Signal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banks | +2.70% | LEADING |
|
| Real Estate | +2.30% | LEADING |
|
| Telecom | +0.55% | INLINE |
|
| Healthcare | -0.34% | INLINE |
|
| Energy | -1.15% | INLINE |
|
| Petrochem | -1.38% | INLINE |
|
| Industrial | -1.84% | INLINE |
|
| Retail | -4.30% | LAGGING |
|
Upcoming Economic Events
| Date | Days Away | Event | Market | Importance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | 4d | MSCI Quarterly Rebalance (Sep) | GLOBAL | MEDIUM |
| 2026-09-16 | 9d | FOMC Meeting (Sep) + SEP | US | HIGH |
| 2026-09-23 | 16d | Saudi National Day | SA | MEDIUM |
| 2026-10-12 | 35d | US Q3 2026 Earnings Season Begins | US | MEDIUM |
| 2026-11-04 | 58d | FOMC Meeting (Nov) | US | HIGH |
| 2026-12-11 | 95d | MSCI Semi-Annual Index Review | GLOBAL | HIGH |
| 2026-12-16 | 100d | FOMC Meeting (Dec) + SEP | US | HIGH |