Macro & Regime Dashboard
Data cached 15 min · Source: yfinanceCurrent Regime
RECOVERY
Falling Growth + Falling Inflation
Growth: FALLING
Inflation: FALLING
Growth FALLING:
S&P 500 above 200-SMA (7543.64 vs 6960.73) · RSPD/RSPS MIXED (ratio 1.8450, above 50-SMA, below 200-SMA) · IWF/IWD BEARISH (ratio 0.5004, below 50-SMA, below 200-SMA)
Inflation FALLING:
Nominal bonds outperforming TIPS (TIP-IEF spread: -0.5%) · Oil stable/falling (Brent $77)
Confidence
20%
Factor Tilt Recommendation
Recommended
QUALITY
LOW_VOL
BONDS
Avoid
CYCLICALS
COMMODITIES
Deflationary recovery: growth slowing (1/3 bullish — RSPD/RSPS MIXED, IWF/IWD BEARISH) and inflation falling (TIPS underperforming nominal bonds, Oil $77 weak). Bonds rally as rates expected to fall — overweight duration. Quality equities (high ROE, low debt) outperform with best Sharpe of any single factor (Novy-Marx 2013). Cyclicals underperform without growth catalyst. Commodities fall with demand. VIX at 16.
Suggested Asset Allocation
Stocks
40%
Bonds
40%
Commodities
5%
Cash
15%
Bonds attractive; focus on quality equities. Commodities unattractive.
Market Signals
S&P 500 vs SMA200
ABOVE
7544 / SMA 6961
VIX Fear Index
15.8
NORMAL
Yield Curve (10Y-3M)
NORMAL
Spread +0.86%
Credit Spreads (HYG/LQD)
STABLE
HYG +0.7% / LQD +0.0%
Brent Oil
$76.88
-2.6% 1M
Gold
$4108
-5.2% 1M
US Dollar (DXY)
99.1
RISING
VIX Term Structure
CONTANGO
Normal (VIX3M > VIX)
Market Sentiment
68
GREED
Extreme FearFearNeutralGreedExtreme Greed
| Component | Score | Signal | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| VIX Level |
65
|
GREED | VIX 15.9 — normal volatility (15–20) |
| VIX Term Structure |
75
|
GREED | VIX3M/VIX = 1.194 — strong contango (normal market) |
| Market Breadth |
56
|
NEUTRAL | 55.7% of stocks above SMA-50 |
| Credit Spreads |
70
|
GREED | HYG/LQD 0.7404 above 20-SMA 0.7333 — spreads tightening (risk-on) |
| Safe Haven (Gold) |
75
|
GREED | GLD 1M return -4.8% — falling gold (less safe-haven demand) |
| Price Momentum |
70
|
GREED | SPY 751.71 above 200-SMA 690.63 — trend is up |
60-Day Sentiment History (VIX-based proxy)
Key Correlations (30-day rolling)
| Pair | Correlation | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
|
Oil — TASI
Petro-state sensitivity
|
-0.298 | Near zero |
|
DXY — Gold
Should be negative
|
+0.306 | Moderate positive |
|
10Y Yield — S&P 500
Regime dependent
|
-0.416 | Moderate negative |
|
VIX — S&P 500
Should be negative
|
-0.013 | Near zero |
Divergences & Risk Appetite
Risk Appetite
Risk On
Risk Off
Risk On
VIX: Low — risk-on environment
Credit: Credit spreads stable
Safe haven: Gold falling, 10Y yield falling
Divergences
All markets — ALIGNED
No significant intermarket divergences detected. Markets are moving in sync.
Saudi Market Macro
Oil vs Budget Breakeven
Brent
$76.95
Breakeven
$96
DEFICIT
-19.8% vs breakeven
USD / SAR
3.75
Pegged — SAMA mirrors Fed policy. No devaluation risk under Vision 2030.
TASI Market Breadth
Above SMA-50
21%
Above SMA-200
50%
Breadth signal:
WEAK
(14 stocks sampled)
Seasonality
NORMAL
No major seasonal distortions. Normal market conditions apply.
TASI Sector Rotation (1-Month)
| Sector | 1M Performance | Signal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail | +8.97% | LEADING |
|
| Real Estate | +6.19% | LEADING |
|
| Industrial | +2.77% | LEADING |
|
| Healthcare | -0.51% | INLINE |
|
| Telecom | -1.14% | INLINE |
|
| Energy | -1.26% | INLINE |
|
| Banks | -2.40% | LAGGING |
|
| Petrochem | -6.61% | LAGGING |
|
Upcoming Economic Events
| Date | Days Away | Event | Market | Importance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | 3d | US Q2 2026 Earnings Season Begins | US | MEDIUM |
| 2026-07-29 | 19d | FOMC Meeting (Jul) | US | HIGH |
| 2026-09-11 | 63d | MSCI Quarterly Rebalance (Sep) | GLOBAL | MEDIUM |
| 2026-09-16 | 68d | FOMC Meeting (Sep) + SEP | US | HIGH |
| 2026-09-23 | 75d | Saudi National Day | SA | MEDIUM |
| 2026-10-12 | 94d | US Q3 2026 Earnings Season Begins | US | MEDIUM |
| 2026-11-04 | 117d | FOMC Meeting (Nov) | US | HIGH |
| 2026-12-11 | 154d | MSCI Semi-Annual Index Review | GLOBAL | HIGH |
| 2026-12-16 | 159d | FOMC Meeting (Dec) + SEP | US | HIGH |