Macro & Regime Dashboard
Data cached 15 min · Source: yfinanceCurrent Regime
RECOVERY
Falling Growth + Falling Inflation
Growth: FALLING
Inflation: FALLING
Growth FALLING:
S&P 500 above 200-SMA (7353.73 vs 7322.74) · RSPD/RSPS MIXED (ratio 1.7873, above 50-SMA, below 200-SMA) · IWF/IWD BEARISH (ratio 0.4271, below 50-SMA, below 200-SMA)
Inflation FALLING:
Nominal bonds outperforming TIPS (TIP-IEF spread: -1.3%) · Oil stable/falling (Brent $98)
Confidence
40%
Factor Tilt Recommendation
Recommended
QUALITY
LOW_VOL
BONDS
Avoid
CYCLICALS
COMMODITIES
Deflationary recovery: growth slowing (1/3 bullish — RSPD/RSPS MIXED, IWF/IWD BEARISH) and inflation falling (TIPS underperforming nominal bonds, Oil $98 weak). Bonds rally as rates expected to fall — overweight duration. Quality equities (high ROE, low debt) outperform with best Sharpe of any single factor (Novy-Marx 2013). Cyclicals underperform without growth catalyst. Commodities fall with demand. VIX at 27.
Suggested Asset Allocation
Stocks
40%
Bonds
40%
Commodities
5%
Cash
15%
Bonds attractive; focus on quality equities. Commodities unattractive.
Market Signals
S&P 500 vs SMA200
ABOVE
7354 / SMA 7323
VIX Fear Index
26.9
ELEVATED
Yield Curve (10Y-3M)
NORMAL
Spread +0.85%
Credit Spreads (HYG/LQD)
WIDENING
HYG +0.1% / LQD +2.5%
Brent Oil
$98.45
-6.8% 1M
Gold
$4075
-2.5% 1M
US Dollar (DXY)
99.1
RISING
VIX Term Structure
BACKWARDATION
Stressed (VIX > VIX3M)
Market Sentiment
41
FEAR
Extreme FearFearNeutralGreedExtreme Greed
| Component | Score | Signal | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| VIX Level |
35
|
FEAR | VIX 26.9 — high volatility (25–30) |
| VIX Term Structure |
20
|
FEAR | VIX3M/VIX = 0.948 — strong backwardation (fear) |
| Market Breadth |
43
|
NEUTRAL | 42.6% of stocks above SMA-50 |
| Credit Spreads |
30
|
FEAR | HYG/LQD 0.7384 below 20-SMA 0.7448 — spreads widening (risk-off) |
| Safe Haven (Gold) |
50
|
NEUTRAL | GLD 1M return -0.1% — flat gold |
| Price Momentum |
70
|
GREED | SPY 733.00 above 200-SMA 727.39 — trend is up |
60-Day Sentiment History (VIX-based proxy)
Key Correlations (30-day rolling)
| Pair | Correlation | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
|
Oil — TASI
Petro-state sensitivity
|
+0.022 | Near zero |
|
DXY — Gold
Should be negative
|
-0.258 | Near zero |
|
10Y Yield — S&P 500
Regime dependent
|
+0.316 | Moderate positive |
|
VIX — S&P 500
Should be negative
|
+0.298 | Near zero |
Divergences & Risk Appetite
Risk Appetite
Neutral
Risk Off
Risk On
VIX: Elevated — market stress
Credit: Credit spreads widening
Safe haven: Gold falling, 10Y yield falling
Divergences
All markets — ALIGNED
No significant intermarket divergences detected. Markets are moving in sync.
Saudi Market Macro
Oil vs Budget Breakeven
Brent
$98.45
Breakeven
$96
SURPLUS
+2.6% vs breakeven
USD / SAR
3.75
Pegged — SAMA mirrors Fed policy. No devaluation risk under Vision 2030.
TASI Market Breadth
Above SMA-50
29%
Above SMA-200
36%
Breadth signal:
WEAK
(14 stocks sampled)
Seasonality
NORMAL
No major seasonal distortions. Normal market conditions apply.
TASI Sector Rotation (1-Month)
| Sector | 1M Performance | Signal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail | +3.42% | LEADING |
|
| Petrochem | +3.22% | LEADING |
|
| Energy | +1.24% | INLINE |
|
| Banks | -1.90% | INLINE |
|
| Telecom | -1.91% | INLINE |
|
| Healthcare | -4.80% | LAGGING |
|
| Industrial | -4.81% | LAGGING |
|
| Real Estate | -6.64% | LAGGING |
|
Upcoming Economic Events
| Date | Days Away | Event | Market | Importance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-11 | 35d | MSCI Semi-Annual Index Review | GLOBAL | HIGH |
| 2026-12-16 | 40d | FOMC Meeting (Dec) + SEP | US | HIGH |