Macro & Regime Dashboard
Data cached 15 min · Source: yfinanceCurrent Regime
BEAR
Falling Growth + Rising Inflation
Growth: FALLING
Inflation: RISING
Growth FALLING:
S&P 500 above 200-SMA (7412.84 vs 6758.66) · RSPD/RSPS BEARISH (ratio 1.7961, below 50-SMA, below 200-SMA) · IWF/IWD MIXED (ratio 0.5264, above 50-SMA, below 200-SMA)
Inflation RISING:
TIPS outperforming nominal bonds (TIP-IEF spread: +1.1%) · Oil rising (Brent $106, +6.6% 1M)
Confidence
20%
Factor Tilt Recommendation
Recommended
LOW_VOL
DEFENSIVE
GOLD
Avoid
GROWTH
MOMENTUM
CYCLICALS
Stagflationary bear: growth failing (1/3 bullish — RSPD/RSPS BEARISH = offense losing to defense, IWF/IWD MIXED = growth losing to value) while inflation still rising (Oil $106, TIPS > nominal bonds). Avoid momentum: skewness = -1.43, crashes during regime changes (Daniel-Moskowitz 2016). Avoid cyclicals: they depend on growth acceleration which is absent. Low-vol factor has highest risk-adjusted returns in bear markets (Ang et al. 2006, Sharpe ~0.8). Gold hedges both inflation and equity drawdowns. VIX at 18.
Suggested Asset Allocation
Stocks
25%
Bonds
20%
Commodities
30%
Cash
25%
Preserve capital. Overweight gold and cash. Minimal equity exposure.
Market Signals
S&P 500 vs SMA200
ABOVE
7413 / SMA 6759
VIX Fear Index
18.4
NORMAL
Yield Curve (10Y-3M)
NORMAL
Spread +0.81%
Credit Spreads (HYG/LQD)
STABLE
HYG +0.6% / LQD +0.1%
Brent Oil
$105.99
+6.6% 1M
Gold
$4709
-3.1% 1M
US Dollar (DXY)
99.1
RISING
VIX Term Structure
CONTANGO
Normal (VIX3M > VIX)
Market Sentiment
64
GREED
Extreme FearFearNeutralGreedExtreme Greed
| Component | Score | Signal | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| VIX Level |
65
|
GREED | VIX 18.4 — normal volatility (15–20) |
| VIX Term Structure |
75
|
GREED | VIX3M/VIX = 1.156 — strong contango (normal market) |
| Market Breadth |
53
|
NEUTRAL | 53.4% of stocks above SMA-50 |
| Credit Spreads |
70
|
GREED | HYG/LQD 0.7342 above 20-SMA 0.7340 — spreads tightening (risk-on) |
| Safe Haven (Gold) |
50
|
NEUTRAL | GLD 1M return -0.6% — flat gold |
| Price Momentum |
70
|
GREED | SPY 739.30 above 200-SMA 671.11 — trend is up |
60-Day Sentiment History (VIX-based proxy)
Key Correlations (30-day rolling)
| Pair | Correlation | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
|
Oil — TASI
Petro-state sensitivity
|
-0.187 | Near zero |
|
DXY — Gold
Should be negative
|
+0.260 | Near zero |
|
10Y Yield — S&P 500
Regime dependent
|
-0.560 | Moderate negative |
|
VIX — S&P 500
Should be negative
|
-0.758 | Strong negative |
Divergences & Risk Appetite
Risk Appetite
Risk On
Risk Off
Risk On
VIX: Low — risk-on environment
Credit: Credit spreads stable
Safe haven: Gold falling, 10Y yield falling
Divergences
Oil vs TASI — DIVERGING
Oil +6.6% vs TASI -1.4% (1 month). Oil moved higher — watch for TASI catch-up or oil mean-reversion.
Saudi Market Macro
Oil vs Budget Breakeven
Brent
$105.99
Breakeven
$96
SURPLUS
+10.4% vs breakeven
USD / SAR
3.75
Pegged — SAMA mirrors Fed policy. No devaluation risk under Vision 2030.
TASI Market Breadth
Above SMA-50
50%
Above SMA-200
79%
Breadth signal:
MODERATE
(14 stocks sampled)
Seasonality
NORMAL
No major seasonal distortions. Normal market conditions apply.
TASI Sector Rotation (1-Month)
| Sector | 1M Performance | Signal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial | +8.09% | LEADING |
|
| Retail | +6.20% | LEADING |
|
| Telecom | +2.89% | LEADING |
|
| Energy | +1.77% | INLINE |
|
| Petrochem | +1.35% | INLINE |
|
| Real Estate | -1.61% | INLINE |
|
| Banks | -5.42% | LAGGING |
|
| Healthcare | -9.75% | LAGGING |
|
Upcoming Economic Events
| Date | Days Away | Event | Market | Importance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | 25d | Hajj Season Begins (approx) | SA | MEDIUM |
| 2026-06-12 | 31d | MSCI Semi-Annual Index Review | GLOBAL | HIGH |
| 2026-06-16 | 35d | Eid Al-Adha (approx) | SA | HIGH |
| 2026-06-17 | 36d | FOMC Meeting (Jun) + SEP | US | HIGH |
| 2026-07-13 | 62d | US Q2 2026 Earnings Season Begins | US | MEDIUM |
| 2026-07-29 | 78d | FOMC Meeting (Jul) | US | HIGH |
| 2026-09-11 | 122d | MSCI Quarterly Rebalance (Sep) | GLOBAL | MEDIUM |
| 2026-09-16 | 127d | FOMC Meeting (Sep) + SEP | US | HIGH |
| 2026-09-23 | 134d | Saudi National Day | SA | MEDIUM |
| 2026-10-12 | 153d | US Q3 2026 Earnings Season Begins | US | MEDIUM |
| 2026-11-04 | 176d | FOMC Meeting (Nov) | US | HIGH |
| 2026-12-11 | 213d | MSCI Semi-Annual Index Review | GLOBAL | HIGH |
| 2026-12-16 | 218d | FOMC Meeting (Dec) + SEP | US | HIGH |