aljazira bank

1020.SR · Financial Services · · SAR

12.02 SAR

0.00 (-1.96%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 18:30 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 62

Momentum 54

Fundamental 56

Macro 60

Liquidity 44

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	20%
Trend & RS	62.2	30%
Momentum	53.5	15%
Fundamental	55.6	10%
Macro	59.5	20%
Liquidity	44.0	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	12.02
Stop Loss	11.64 (3.2%)
Target 1 (1:1)	12.40 (+3.2%)
Target 2 (2:1)	12.78 (+6.3%)

ATR(14)	0.19 (1.6%)
Risk per Share	0.38
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	89.6	+1.59
Momentum	53.5	+0.14
Quality	64.8	+0.59
Composite	69.3

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	11.9	18.0	-34% below
P/B Ratio	1.0	2.5	Below
Dividend Yield	8.2%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued

Intrinsic Value

18.52

Market Price

12.02

Upside

+54.1%

Margin of Safety	+35.1%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	5,504,517,063
Terminal Value PV	18,124,712,602
Total Enterprise Value	23,629,229,665

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,030,782,782
Growth Rate (5yr)	11.4%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

36.96%

Full Kelly

18.48%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 56/100. Estimated win rate 57%, avg win 8.4%, avg loss 3.9%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

46.58

RSI(14)

0.0147

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	→ FLAT (+6.5% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	INLINE (Financial Services)
RS New High	No (7d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+0.5% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	46.58	NEUTRAL
Macd	0.0147	BEARISH
Ma Cross	12.02 / 11.57	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.46x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	13.31
Bollinger Upper	12.4
SMA(200)	11.57
SMA(50)	12.02
SMA(20)	12.12
Current Price	12.02
Bollinger Lower	11.84
52-Week Low	10.81
ATR(14)	0.19

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence

50%

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 1.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-09-01	Normal	0.5x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.35x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.29x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-06	Normal	0.29x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-07	Normal	0.46x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	12.24	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	12.01	Base line
Senkou A	12.12	Leading span A
Senkou B	12.01	Leading span B
Cloud	12.01 – 12.12	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	12.02	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	12.26	Bearish
Alignment Score	2/4	NEUTRAL