The Saudi Investment Bank

1030.SR · Financial Services · · SAR

14.79 SAR

+0.00 (0.41%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 20:30 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 80

Trend & RS 89

Momentum 73

Fundamental (0%) 44

Macro 59

Liquidity 34

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	80.0	40%
Trend & RS	88.7	20%
Momentum	73.1	20%
Fundamental	44.4	0%
Macro	59.4	15%
Liquidity	34.0	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	14.79
Stop Loss	14.37 (2.8%)
Target 1 (1:1)	15.21 (+2.8%)
Target 2 (2:1)	15.63 (+5.7%)

ATR(14)	0.21 (1.4%)
Risk per Share	0.42
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	93.0	+1.72
Momentum	73.1	+0.93
Quality	70.7	+0.83
Composite	79.0

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 4 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	8.7	18.0	-52% below
P/B Ratio	1.0	2.5	Below
Dividend Yield	5.4%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued

Intrinsic Value

21.91

Market Price

14.79

Upside

+48.2%

Margin of Safety	+32.5%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	7,179,649,836
Terminal Value PV	20,154,590,090
Total Enterprise Value	27,334,239,926

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,696,327,986
Growth Rate (5yr)	3.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

48.68%

Full Kelly

24.34%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 75/100. Estimated win rate 62%, avg win 9.5%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

70.05

RSI(14)

0.3178

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	↑ RISING (+18.3% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Financial Services)
RS New High	Near 3-month high 5d since high
Sector Outperformance	+12.3% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	70.05	OVERBOUGHT
Macd	0.3178	BULLISH
Ma Cross	13.73 / 12.95	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.34x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	14.98
Bollinger Upper	15.01
SMA(200)	12.95
SMA(50)	13.73
SMA(20)	14.34
Current Price	14.79
Bollinger Lower	13.68
52-Week Low	12.26
ATR(14)	0.21

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-09-01	Normal	0.48x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.8x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	1.79x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-06	Normal	1.79x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-07	Normal	0.34x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	14.69	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	14.15	Base line
Senkou A	14.42	Leading span A
Senkou B	13.88	Leading span B
Cloud	13.88 – 14.42	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	14.79	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	13.59	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH