Banque Saudi Fransi

1050.SR · Financial Services · · SAR

19.54 SAR

0.00 (-0.41%)

● Updated 2026-05-12 12:45 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 71

Momentum 62

Fundamental 29

Macro 73

Liquidity 37

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	10%
Trend & RS	70.7	10%
Momentum	61.9	5%
Fundamental	29.1	40%
Macro	72.8	15%
Liquidity	36.8	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	19.50
Stop Loss	18.74 (3.9%)
Target 1 (1:1)	20.26 (+3.9%)
Target 2 (2:1)	21.02 (+7.8%)

ATR(14)	0.38 (1.9%)
Risk per Share	0.76
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	91.4	+1.66
Momentum	61.9	+0.48
Quality	70.8	+0.83
Composite	74.7

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 4 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 0.69 — Distress Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	9.8	18.0	-45% below
P/B Ratio	1.1	2.5	Below
Dividend Yield	5.5%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Undervalued

Intrinsic Value

27.24

Market Price

19.54

Upside

+39.4%

Margin of Safety	+28.3%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	17,333,617,368
Terminal Value PV	50,057,666,988
Total Enterprise Value	67,391,284,356

Assumptions

Base FCF	3,938,130,400
Growth Rate (5yr)	4.4%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

28.82%

Full Kelly

14.41%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 45/100. Estimated win rate 54%, avg win 7.7%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

46.36

RSI(14)

-0.1256

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	→ FLAT (+9.9% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Financial Services)
RS New High	No (48d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+11.4% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	46.36	NEUTRAL
Macd	-0.1256	BEARISH
Ma Cross	19.68 / 17.91	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.59x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	20.99
Bollinger Upper	21.14
SMA(200)	17.91
SMA(50)	19.68
SMA(20)	19.89
Current Price	19.54
Bollinger Lower	18.64
52-Week Low	15.49
ATR(14)	0.38

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-06	Normal	2.05x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07	Normal	1.33x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-10	Normal	0.51x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11	Normal	1.56x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-12	No Demand	0.59x	Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	19.39	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	19.94	Base line
Senkou A	19.67	Leading span A
Senkou B	19.70	Leading span B
Cloud	19.67 – 19.70	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	19.50	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	19.86	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH