SABIC Agri-Nutrients Company

2020.SR · Basic Materials · · SAR

129.40 SAR

0.00 (-0.61%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 19:29 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 82

Momentum 52

Fundamental 83

Macro 59

Liquidity 48

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	20%
Trend & RS	81.9	30%
Momentum	52.3	15%
Fundamental	83.3	10%
Macro	59.4	20%
Liquidity	48.4	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	129.40
Stop Loss	124.56 (3.7%)
Target 1 (1:1)	134.24 (+3.7%)
Target 2 (2:1)	139.08 (+7.5%)

ATR(14)	2.42 (1.9%)
Risk per Share	4.84
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	72.7	+0.91
Momentum	52.3	+0.09
Quality	80.4	+1.22
Composite	68.5

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 170.51 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	15.9	18.0	-12% below
P/B Ratio	2.9	2.5	Above
Dividend Yield	5.4%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Basic Materials median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

100.73

Market Price

129.40

Upside

-22.2%

Margin of Safety	-28.5%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	12,788,569,008
Terminal Value PV	35,164,000,464
Total Enterprise Value	47,952,569,472

Assumptions

Base FCF	3,107,559,117
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

45.74%

Full Kelly

22.87%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 70/100. Estimated win rate 61%, avg win 9.2%, avg loss 3.6%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

59.38

RSI(14)

2.116

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	↑ RISING (+8.7% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Basic Materials)
RS New High	No (5d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+3.1% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	59.38	NEUTRAL
Macd	2.116	BULLISH
Ma Cross	123.24 / 124.2	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.79x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	159.30
Bollinger Upper	133.83
SMA(200)	124.2
SMA(50)	123.24
SMA(20)	127.32
Current Price	129.40
Bollinger Lower	120.82
52-Week Low	108.30
ATR(14)	2.42

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION A Confidence

75%

Buying Climax

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 3.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-09-01	Normal	0.94x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.0x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.89x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-06	Normal	0.89x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-07	Normal	0.79x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	130.40	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	124.25	Base line
Senkou A	127.32	Leading span A
Senkou B	124.01	Leading span B
Cloud	124.01 – 127.32	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	129.40	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	117.10	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH