Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef

2223.SR · Energy · · SAR

113.00 SAR

0.00 (-2.16%)

● Updated 2026-11-06 18:19 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 63

Momentum 38

Fundamental 83

Macro 57

Liquidity 80

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	10%
Trend & RS	63.1	10%
Momentum	37.9	5%
Fundamental	83.3	40%
Macro	57.1	15%
Liquidity	79.8	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	113.00
Stop Loss	104.68 (7.4%)
Target 1 (1:1)	121.32 (+7.4%)
Target 2 (2:1)	129.64 (+14.7%)

ATR(14)	4.16 (3.7%)
Risk per Share	8.32
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	71.4	+0.86
Momentum	34.4	-0.62
Quality	50.2	+0.01
Composite	52.0

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 14.95 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	13.8	10.0	+38% above
P/B Ratio	3.8	1.5	Above
Dividend Yield	7.1%	4.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Energy median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued

Intrinsic Value

255.89

Market Price

113.00

Upside

+126.5%

Margin of Safety	+55.8%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	8,490,839,563
Terminal Value PV	34,565,578,460
Total Enterprise Value	43,056,418,023

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,105,136,048
Growth Rate (5yr)	25.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.6%

Recommended Size

46.34%

Full Kelly

23.17%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 71/100. Estimated win rate 61%, avg win 9.3%, avg loss 3.6%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

40.26

RSI(14)

-3.4881

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs TASI	→ FLAT (-0.5% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Energy)
RS New High	No (17d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-3.6% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	40.26	NEUTRAL
Macd	-3.4881	BULLISH
Ma Cross	124.99 / 115.34	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	2.77x	HIGH

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	143.00
Bollinger Upper	131.35
SMA(200)	115.34
SMA(50)	124.99
SMA(20)	117.55
Current Price	113.00
Bollinger Lower	103.74
52-Week Low	84.45
ATR(14)	4.16

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-11-01	Normal	0.39x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-11-02	Normal	0.74x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-11-03	Normal	0.39x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-11-04	Normal	0.86x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-11-05	Stopping Volume	2.77x	High volume down-bar closing near low — potential climax (Stopping Volume)

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	113.30	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	119.00	Base line
Senkou A	116.15	Leading span A
Senkou B	121.82	Leading span B
Cloud	116.15 – 121.82	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	113.00	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	124.00	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH

BB: 103.74 – 131.35 | KC: 110.86 – 124.23

Divergences (last 60 bars)

Type	Indicator	Bars Ago	Strength
Hidden Bullish	RSI	27

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 113.18 Anchor: 2025-11-26 (52w Low) BELOW AVWAP -0.2%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/2223.SR

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	19.01B
P/E (TTM)	13.76
Forward P/E	N/A
P/B	3.83
EPS	8.21

Financial Health

Metric	Value
Revenue Growth	52.0%
Profit Margin	14.8%
ROE	29.7%
Debt/Equity	18.44
Current Ratio	1.25
Dividend Yield	7.1%
Payout Ratio	N/A
Beta	0.43

Trading Data

113.00

Open

113.00

Day High

113.00

Day Low

699.7K

Volume (2.4x avg)

Insider Activity

Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)