ADES Holding Company

2382.SR · Energy · · SAR

8.50 SAR

+0.00 (1.67%)

● Updated 2026-11-06 18:19 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 49

Momentum 39

Fundamental 40

Macro 57

Liquidity 52

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	10%
Trend & RS	49.4	10%
Momentum	39.3	5%
Fundamental	40.5	40%
Macro	57.1	15%
Liquidity	52.3	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	8.50
Stop Loss	7.80 (8.2%)
Target 1 (1:1)	9.20 (+8.2%)
Target 2 (2:1)	9.90 (+16.5%)

ATR(14)	0.35 (4.1%)
Risk per Share	0.70
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	68.8	+0.75
Momentum	39.3	-0.43
Quality	33.7	-0.65
Composite	47.3

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 1.27 — Distress Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	23.6	10.0	+136% above
P/B Ratio	2.7	1.5	Above
Dividend Yield	2.6%	4.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Energy median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Undervalued

Intrinsic Value

11.22

Market Price

8.50

Upside

+32.0%

Margin of Safety	+24.2%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	4,886,357,728
Terminal Value PV	19,892,000,102
Total Enterprise Value	24,778,357,830

Assumptions

Base FCF	635,990,119
Growth Rate (5yr)	25.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.6%

Recommended Size

30.35%

Full Kelly

15.17%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 47/100. Estimated win rate 54%, avg win 7.8%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

53.56

RSI(14)

0.0047

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	→ FLAT (+4.6% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	INLINE (Energy)
RS New High	No (5d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+1.5% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	53.56	NEUTRAL
Macd	0.0047	BULLISH
Ma Cross	8.46 / 9.16	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	1.12x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	9.97
Bollinger Upper	8.85
SMA(200)	9.16
SMA(50)	8.46
SMA(20)	8.18
Current Price	8.50
Bollinger Lower	7.52
52-Week Low	7.25
ATR(14)	0.35

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION A Confidence

100%

Buying Climax

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 2.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-11-01	Normal	0.41x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-11-02	Normal	1.12x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-11-03	Normal	0.59x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-11-04	Normal	0.93x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-11-05	Normal	1.12x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	8.47	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	8.37	Base line
Senkou A	8.42	Leading span A
Senkou B	8.43	Leading span B
Cloud	8.42 – 8.43	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	8.50	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	8.44	Bullish
Alignment Score	3/4	BULLISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BULLISH

BB: 7.52 – 8.85 | KC: 7.63 – 8.74

Divergences (last 60 bars)

Type	Indicator	Bars Ago	Strength
Regular Bullish	RSI	17

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 8.35 Anchor: 2026-10-25 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +1.8%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/2382.SR

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	18.77B
P/E (TTM)	23.61
Forward P/E	N/A
P/B	2.72
EPS	0.36

Financial Health

Metric	Value
Revenue Growth	36.4%
Profit Margin	9.8%
ROE	12.1%
Debt/Equity	302.93
Current Ratio	1.11
Dividend Yield	2.6%
Payout Ratio	N/A
Beta	0.64

Trading Data

8.50

Open

8.50

Day High

8.50

Day Low

3.33M

Volume (1.2x avg)

Insider Activity

Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)