Najran Cement Company

3002.SR · Basic Materials · · SAR

5.61 SAR

+0.00 (1.08%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 22:01 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG SELL Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 25

Trend & RS 23

Momentum 43

Fundamental (0%) 49

Macro 59

Liquidity 43

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	25.0	40%
Trend & RS	22.7	20%
Momentum	43.1	20%
Fundamental	49.1	0%
Macro	59.4	15%
Liquidity	43.2	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	5.61
Stop Loss	5.45 (2.9%)
Target 1 (1:1)	5.77 (+2.9%)
Target 2 (2:1)	5.93 (+5.7%)

ATR(14)	0.08 (1.4%)
Risk per Share	0.16
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	70.6	+0.82
Momentum	43.1	-0.28
Quality	45.5	-0.18
Composite	53.1

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 4 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 2.69 — Grey Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	35.1	18.0	+95% above
P/B Ratio	0.5	2.5	Below

Comparing against Basic Materials median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

1.35

Market Price

5.61

Upside

-75.9%

Margin of Safety	-314.7%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	80,347,037
Terminal Value PV	142,551,816
Total Enterprise Value	222,898,853

Assumptions

Base FCF	21,089,280
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	12.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

19.82%

Full Kelly

9.91%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 34/100. Estimated win rate 50%, avg win 7.1%, avg loss 4.3%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

54.25

RSI(14)

-0.0001

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	↓ FALLING (+1.6% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Basic Materials)
RS New High	No (51d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-4.0% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	54.25	NEUTRAL
Macd	-0.0001	BULLISH
Ma Cross	5.61 / 6.1	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	1.37x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	8.07
Bollinger Upper	5.75
SMA(200)	6.1
SMA(50)	5.61
SMA(20)	5.52
Current Price	5.61
Bollinger Lower	5.3
52-Week Low	5.32
ATR(14)	0.08

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence

50%

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 1.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-09-01	Normal	0.73x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.36x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.69x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-06	Normal	0.69x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-07	Normal	1.37x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	5.58	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	5.52	Base line
Senkou A	5.55	Leading span A
Senkou B	5.59	Leading span B
Cloud	5.55 – 5.59	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	5.61	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	5.53	Bullish
Alignment Score	3/4	BULLISH