Northern Region Cement Company

3004.SR · Basic Materials · · SAR

6.65 SAR

0.00 (-0.45%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 21:01 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 25

Trend & RS 51

Momentum 52

Fundamental (0%) 44

Macro 59

Liquidity 26

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	25.0	40%
Trend & RS	50.9	20%
Momentum	52.0	20%
Fundamental	43.9	0%
Macro	59.4	15%
Liquidity	25.9	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	6.65
Stop Loss	6.47 (2.7%)
Target 1 (1:1)	6.83 (+2.7%)
Target 2 (2:1)	7.01 (+5.4%)

ATR(14)	0.09 (1.4%)
Risk per Share	0.18
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	77.4	+1.10
Momentum	52.0	+0.08
Quality	24.5	-1.02
Composite	51.3

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 1.06 — Distress Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	18.5	18.0	Inline
P/B Ratio	0.5	2.5	Below
Dividend Yield	7.5%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Basic Materials median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Undervalued

Intrinsic Value

7.41

Market Price

6.65

Upside

+11.4%

Margin of Safety	+10.2%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	364,699,056
Terminal Value PV	968,557,046
Total Enterprise Value	1,333,256,102

Assumptions

Base FCF	51,840,000
Growth Rate (5yr)	25.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	12.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

25.41%

Full Kelly

12.71%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 41/100. Estimated win rate 52%, avg win 7.4%, avg loss 4.2%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

56.35

RSI(14)

0.0789

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	↑ RISING (+2.9% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	INLINE (Basic Materials)
RS New High	No (7d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-2.8% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	56.35	NEUTRAL
Macd	0.0789	BEARISH
Ma Cross	6.45 / 6.7	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.28x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	8.28
Bollinger Upper	6.99
SMA(200)	6.7
SMA(50)	6.45
SMA(20)	6.58
Current Price	6.65
Bollinger Lower	6.18
52-Week Low	6.31
ATR(14)	0.09

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION A Confidence

50%

Selling Climax Buying Climax

Acc: 3.0 | Dist: 3.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-09-01	No Supply	0.52x	Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure
2026-09-02	No Demand	0.52x	Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest
2026-09-03	No Demand	0.3x	Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest
2026-09-06	No Demand	0.3x	Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest
2026-09-07	Normal	0.28x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	6.80	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	6.58	Base line
Senkou A	6.69	Leading span A
Senkou B	6.54	Leading span B
Cloud	6.54 – 6.69	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	6.65	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	6.24	Bullish
Alignment Score	3/4	NEUTRAL

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BULLISH FADING

BB: 6.18 – 6.99 | KC: 6.44 – 6.73

Divergences (last 60 bars)

No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 6.65 Anchor: 2026-07-30 (52w Low) BELOW AVWAP -0.1%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/3004.SR

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	1.20B
P/E (TTM)	18.47
Forward P/E	N/A
P/B	0.52
EPS	0.36

Financial Health

Metric	Value
Revenue Growth	37.4%
Profit Margin	8.5%
ROE	2.9%
Debt/Equity	50.23
Current Ratio	0.88
Dividend Yield	7.5%
Payout Ratio	N/A
Beta	0.20

Trading Data

6.65

Open

6.65

Day High

6.65

Day Low

128.7K

Volume (0.5x avg)

Insider Activity

Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)