Zahrat Al Waha For Trading Company

3007.SR · Consumer Cyclical · · SAR

2.72 SAR

0.00 (-0.73%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 19:31 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 70

Momentum 60

Fundamental 71

Macro 59

Liquidity 18

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	20%
Trend & RS	69.5	30%
Momentum	60.4	15%
Fundamental	71.4	10%
Macro	59.4	20%
Liquidity	17.9	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	2.72
Stop Loss	2.60 (4.4%)
Target 1 (1:1)	2.84 (+4.4%)
Target 2 (2:1)	2.96 (+8.8%)

ATR(14)	0.06 (2.2%)
Risk per Share	0.12
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	80.9	+1.24
Momentum	60.4	+0.42
Quality	38.2	-0.47
Composite	59.8

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 3.81 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	14.3	18.0	-20% below
P/B Ratio	1.9	2.5	Below
Dividend Yield	1.8%	2.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued

Intrinsic Value

3.91

Market Price

2.72

Upside

+43.7%

Margin of Safety	+30.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	240,600,071
Terminal Value PV	638,978,605
Total Enterprise Value	879,578,676

Assumptions

Base FCF	34,200,000
Growth Rate (5yr)	25.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	12.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

39.31%

Full Kelly

19.65%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 60/100. Estimated win rate 58%, avg win 8.6%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

39.64

RSI(14)

-0.0156

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	→ FLAT (+11.8% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High	No (10d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+7.5% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	39.64	NEUTRAL
Macd	-0.0156	BEARISH
Ma Cross	2.81 / 2.54	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.61x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	3.13
Bollinger Upper	2.9
SMA(200)	2.54
SMA(50)	2.81
SMA(20)	2.8
Current Price	2.72
Bollinger Lower	2.69
52-Week Low	2.09
ATR(14)	0.06

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION B Confidence

67%

Volume Dry-Up (Distribution)

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 2.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-09-01	Normal	1.4x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.0x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	No Supply	0.57x	Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure
2026-09-06	No Supply	0.57x	Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure
2026-09-07	Normal	0.61x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	2.80	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	2.83	Base line
Senkou A	2.82	Leading span A
Senkou B	2.85	Leading span B
Cloud	2.82 – 2.85	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	2.72	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	2.80	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH