Qassim Cement Company

3040.SR · Basic Materials · · SAR

45.58 SAR

0.00 (-0.09%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 21:01 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 100

Trend & RS 73

Momentum 60

Fundamental (0%) 83

Macro 59

Liquidity 35

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	100.0	40%
Trend & RS	73.4	20%
Momentum	60.2	20%
Fundamental	83.3	0%
Macro	59.4	15%
Liquidity	35.3	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	45.58
Stop Loss	44.88 (1.5%)
Target 1 (1:1)	46.28 (+1.5%)
Target 2 (2:1)	46.98 (+3.1%)

ATR(14)	0.35 (0.8%)
Risk per Share	0.70
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	68.6	+0.75
Momentum	60.2	+0.41
Quality	66.4	+0.65
Composite	65.1

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 27.10 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	21.6	18.0	+20% above
P/B Ratio	1.9	2.5	Below
Dividend Yield	7.0%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Basic Materials median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

22.58

Market Price

45.58

Upside

-50.5%

Margin of Safety	-101.8%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	742,821,723
Terminal Value PV	1,735,877,746
Total Enterprise Value	2,478,699,469

Assumptions

Base FCF	185,275,972
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	10.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

50.05%

Full Kelly

25.03%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 77/100. Estimated win rate 63%, avg win 9.6%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

67.13

RSI(14)

0.3192

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	→ FLAT (+5.5% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	INLINE (Basic Materials)
RS New High	No (6d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-0.1% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	67.13	NEUTRAL
Macd	0.3192	BULLISH
Ma Cross	44.71 / 42.66	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.83x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	46.48
Bollinger Upper	46.04
SMA(200)	42.66
SMA(50)	44.71
SMA(20)	44.84
Current Price	45.58
Bollinger Lower	43.65
52-Week Low	40.50
ATR(14)	0.35

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION A Confidence

75%

Selling Climax

Acc: 3.0 | Dist: 1.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-09-01	Normal	0.92x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	No Demand	0.52x	Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest
2026-09-03	Normal	0.76x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-06	Normal	0.76x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-07	Normal	0.83x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	45.41	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	44.48	Base line
Senkou A	44.95	Leading span A
Senkou B	44.33	Leading span B
Cloud	44.33 – 44.95	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	45.58	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	43.38	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH