National Medical Care Company
4005.SR · Healthcare · · SARFahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)
60
/ 100
Technical
50
Trend & RS
32
Momentum
32
Fundamental
89
Macro
55
Liquidity
30
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 50.0 | 10% |
| Trend & RS | 32.4 | 10% |
| Momentum | 32.3 | 5% |
| Fundamental | 88.9 | 40% |
| Macro | 55.1 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 30.3 | 20% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 113.60 |
| Stop Loss | 107.68 (5.2%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 119.52 (+5.2%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 125.44 (+10.4%) |
| ATR(14) | 2.96 (2.6%) |
| Risk per Share | 5.92 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 69.7 | +0.79 | |
| Momentum | 32.3 | -0.71 | |
| Quality | 69.1 | +0.76 | |
| Composite | 57.0 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
7
/9 —
Strong
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
6.38
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Undervalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.8 | 22.0 | -19% below |
| P/B Ratio | 2.7 | 4.0 | Below |
| Dividend Yield | 2.6% | 1.5% | Above avg |
Comparing against Healthcare median multiples.
Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
68.50
vs
Market Price
113.60
Upside
-39.7%
| Margin of Safety | -65.8% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 917,372,697 |
| Terminal Value PV | 2,143,780,670 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 3,061,153,367 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 228,812,800 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 2.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.8%
Recommended Size
39.24%
Full Kelly
19.62%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 60/100. Estimated win rate 58%, avg win 8.6%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%
Signal Summary BUY
2
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
64.45
RSI(14)
1.3983
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS
6
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs TASI | → FLAT (-9.0% vs TASI 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | INLINE (Healthcare) |
| RS New High | No (62d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -0.2% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs TASI
50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS:
Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 64.45 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 1.3983 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 105.04 / 134.63 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 0.48x | LOW |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 183.50 |
| Bollinger Upper | 113.69 |
| SMA(200) | 134.63 |
| SMA(50) | 105.04 |
| SMA(20) | 107.64 |
| Current Price | 113.60 |
| Bollinger Lower | 101.59 |
| 52-Week Low | 94.90 |
| ATR(14) | 2.96 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
ACCUMULATION A
Confidence
50%
Selling Climax
Acc: 2.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 2.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | No Supply | 0.13x | Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure |
| 2026-07-06 | Normal | 1.54x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-07-07 | Normal | 0.67x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-07-08 | Normal | 0.83x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-07-09 | No Supply | 0.48x | Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 108.90 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 107.45 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 108.18 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 106.30 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 106.30 – 108.18 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 113.60 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 106.10 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 101.59 – 113.69 | KC: 103.05 – 112.23
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden Bullish | MACD | 8 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 104.90
Anchor: 2026-05-17 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+8.3%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/4005.SR
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 5.08B |
| P/E (TTM) | 17.75 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 2.67 |
| EPS | 6.40 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 0.7% |
| Profit Margin | 17.8% |
| ROE | 15.8% |
| Debt/Equity | 38.35 |
| Current Ratio | 5.16 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.6% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.08 |
Trading Data
113.60
Open
113.60
Day High
113.60
Day Low
83.5K
Volume (0.4x avg)
Recent News (1)
Insider Activity
Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)