National Medical Care Company

4005.SR · Healthcare · · SAR

113.60 SAR

+0.00 (0.44%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 17:04 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 32

Momentum 32

Fundamental (0%) 89

Macro 55

Liquidity 30

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	40%
Trend & RS	32.4	20%
Momentum	32.3	20%
Fundamental	88.9	0%
Macro	55.1	15%
Liquidity	30.3	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	113.60
Stop Loss	107.68 (5.2%)
Target 1 (1:1)	119.52 (+5.2%)
Target 2 (2:1)	125.44 (+10.4%)

ATR(14)	2.96 (2.6%)
Risk per Share	5.92
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	69.7	+0.79
Momentum	32.3	-0.71
Quality	69.1	+0.76
Composite	57.0

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 6.38 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	17.8	22.0	-19% below
P/B Ratio	2.7	4.0	Below
Dividend Yield	2.6%	1.5%	Above avg

Comparing against Healthcare median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

68.50

Market Price

113.60

Upside

-39.7%

Margin of Safety	-65.8%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	917,372,697
Terminal Value PV	2,143,780,670
Total Enterprise Value	3,061,153,367

Assumptions

Base FCF	228,812,800
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	10.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

26.94%

Full Kelly

13.47%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 43/100. Estimated win rate 53%, avg win 7.6%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

64.45

RSI(14)

1.3983

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	→ FLAT (-9.0% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	INLINE (Healthcare)
RS New High	No (62d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-0.2% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	64.45	NEUTRAL
Macd	1.3983	BULLISH
Ma Cross	105.04 / 134.63	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.48x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	183.50
Bollinger Upper	113.69
SMA(200)	134.63
SMA(50)	105.04
SMA(20)	107.64
Current Price	113.60
Bollinger Lower	101.59
52-Week Low	94.90
ATR(14)	2.96

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION A Confidence

50%

Selling Climax

Acc: 2.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 2.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-05	No Supply	0.13x	Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure
2026-07-06	Normal	1.54x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	0.67x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	0.83x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	No Supply	0.48x	Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	108.90	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	107.45	Base line
Senkou A	108.18	Leading span A
Senkou B	106.30	Leading span B
Cloud	106.30 – 108.18	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	113.60	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	106.10	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BULLISH FADING

BB: 101.59 – 113.69 | KC: 103.05 – 112.23

Divergences (last 60 bars)

Type	Indicator	Bars Ago	Strength
Hidden Bullish	MACD	8

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 104.90 Anchor: 2026-05-17 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +8.3%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/4005.SR

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	5.08B
P/E (TTM)	17.75
Forward P/E	N/A
P/B	2.67
EPS	6.40

Financial Health

Metric	Value
Revenue Growth	0.7%
Profit Margin	17.8%
ROE	15.8%
Debt/Equity	38.35
Current Ratio	5.16
Dividend Yield	2.6%
Payout Ratio	N/A
Beta	0.08

Trading Data

113.60

Open

113.60

Day High

113.60

Day Low

83.5K

Volume (0.4x avg)

Recent News (1)

National Medical Care Co (SAU:4005) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and ...

GuruFocus.com · 2025-11-03

Insider Activity

Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)