Saudi Ground Services Company

4031.SR · Industrials · · SAR

24.62 SAR

0.00 (-6.95%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 21:01 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 33

Trend & RS 17

Momentum 18

Fundamental 83

Macro 59

Liquidity 77

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	33.3	10%
Trend & RS	16.6	10%
Momentum	18.5	5%
Fundamental	83.3	40%
Macro	59.4	15%
Liquidity	76.7	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	24.62
Stop Loss	23.48 (4.6%)
Target 1 (1:1)	25.76 (+4.6%)
Target 2 (2:1)	26.90 (+9.3%)

ATR(14)	0.57 (2.3%)
Risk per Share	1.14
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	65.5	+0.62
Momentum	16.8	-1.33
Quality	42.6	-0.30
Composite	41.6

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 13.44 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	22.0	18.0	+22% above
P/B Ratio	1.8	3.0	Below
Dividend Yield	7.6%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Industrials median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

11.99

Market Price

24.62

Upside

-51.3%

Margin of Safety	-105.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	675,353,809
Terminal Value PV	1,578,214,007
Total Enterprise Value	2,253,567,816

Assumptions

Base FCF	168,448,000
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	10.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

41.71%

Full Kelly

20.86%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 64/100. Estimated win rate 59%, avg win 8.8%, avg loss 3.7%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

22.74

RSI(14)

-0.4269

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	↓ FALLING (-18.6% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Industrials)
RS New High	No (60d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-20.6% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	22.74	OVERSOLD
Macd	-0.4269	BEARISH
Ma Cross	27.69 / 32.44	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		LOWER BAND
Volume	5.64x	HIGH

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	47.68
Bollinger Upper	27.9
SMA(200)	32.44
SMA(50)	27.69
SMA(20)	26.62
Current Price	24.62
Bollinger Lower	25.35
52-Week Low	24.52
ATR(14)	0.57

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKDOWN Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 2.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-09-01	No Supply	0.41x	Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure
2026-09-02	Normal	0.55x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.72x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-06	Normal	0.72x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-07	Stopping Volume	5.64x	High volume down-bar closing near low — potential climax (Stopping Volume)

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	26.08	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	26.16	Base line
Senkou A	26.12	Leading span A
Senkou B	28.02	Leading span B
Cloud	26.12 – 28.02	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	24.62	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	27.60	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH

BB: 25.35 – 27.9 | KC: 25.84 – 27.41

Divergences (last 60 bars)

Type	Indicator	Bars Ago
Hidden Bearish	RSI	19
Hidden Bearish	RSI	26
Regular Bullish	RSI	28

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 27.73 Anchor: 2026-06-16 (52w Low) BELOW AVWAP -11.2%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/4031.SR

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	4.63B
P/E (TTM)	21.98
Forward P/E	N/A
P/B	1.78
EPS	1.12

Financial Health

Metric	Value
Revenue Growth	-7.8%
Profit Margin	7.9%
ROE	8.2%
Debt/Equity	8.90
Current Ratio	2.44
Dividend Yield	7.6%
Payout Ratio	N/A
Beta	0.10

Trading Data

24.62

Open

24.62

Day High

24.62

Day Low

2.75M

Volume (6.9x avg)

Insider Activity

Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)