Saudi Ground Services Company
4031.SR · Industrials · · SARFahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)
38
/ 100
Technical
33
Trend & RS
17
Momentum
18
Fundamental
83
Macro
59
Liquidity
77
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 33.3 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 16.6 | 30% |
| Momentum | 18.5 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 83.3 | 10% |
| Macro | 59.4 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 76.7 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 24.62 |
| Stop Loss | 23.48 (4.6%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 25.76 (+4.6%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 26.90 (+9.3%) |
| ATR(14) | 0.57 (2.3%) |
| Risk per Share | 1.14 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 65.5 | +0.62 | |
| Momentum | 16.8 | -1.33 | |
| Quality | 42.6 | -0.30 | |
| Composite | 41.6 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
6
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✗
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
13.44
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Fair Value
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.0 | 18.0 | +22% above |
| P/B Ratio | 1.8 | 3.0 | Below |
| Dividend Yield | 7.6% | 2.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Industrials median multiples.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
11.99
vs
Market Price
24.62
Upside
-51.3%
| Margin of Safety | -105.4% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 675,353,809 |
| Terminal Value PV | 1,578,214,007 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 2,253,567,816 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 168,448,000 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 2.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.5%
Recommended Size
23.51%
Full Kelly
11.76%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 38/100. Estimated win rate 52%, avg win 7.3%, avg loss 4.2%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
BEAR
Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%
Signal Summary SELL
2
Bullish Signals
4
Bearish Signals
22.74
RSI(14)
-0.4269
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS
4
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs TASI | ↓ FALLING (-18.6% vs TASI 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Industrials) |
| RS New High | No (60d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -20.6% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs TASI
50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS:
Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 22.74 | OVERSOLD |
| Macd | -0.4269 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 27.69 / 32.44 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | LOWER BAND | |
| Volume | 5.64x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 47.68 |
| Bollinger Upper | 27.9 |
| SMA(200) | 32.44 |
| SMA(50) | 27.69 |
| SMA(20) | 26.62 |
| Current Price | 24.62 |
| Bollinger Lower | 25.35 |
| 52-Week Low | 24.52 |
| ATR(14) | 0.57 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKDOWN
Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 2.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | No Supply | 0.41x | Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure |
| 2026-09-02 | Normal | 0.55x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-09-03 | Normal | 0.72x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-09-06 | Normal | 0.72x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-09-07 | Stopping Volume | 5.64x | High volume down-bar closing near low — potential climax (Stopping Volume) |
Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 26.08 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 26.16 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 26.12 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 28.02 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 26.12 – 28.02 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 24.62 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 27.60 | Bearish |
| Alignment Score | 0/4 | BEARISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 25.35 – 27.9 | KC: 25.84 – 27.41
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden Bearish | RSI | 19 | |
| Hidden Bearish | RSI | 26 | |
| Regular Bullish | RSI | 28 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 27.73
Anchor: 2026-06-16 (52w Low)
BELOW AVWAP
-11.2%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/4031.SR
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 4.63B |
| P/E (TTM) | 21.98 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 1.78 |
| EPS | 1.12 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -7.8% |
| Profit Margin | 7.9% |
| ROE | 8.2% |
| Debt/Equity | 8.90 |
| Current Ratio | 2.44 |
| Dividend Yield | 7.6% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.10 |
Trading Data
24.62
Open
24.62
Day High
24.62
Day Low
2.75M
Volume (6.9x avg)
Insider Activity
Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)