Arriyadh Development Co.

4150.SR · Real Estate · · SAR

15.85 SAR

0.00 (-0.13%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 18:31 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 25

Trend & RS 17

Momentum 35

Fundamental 67

Macro 60

Liquidity 30

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	25.0	20%
Trend & RS	16.6	30%
Momentum	35.0	15%
Fundamental	66.7	10%
Macro	59.5	20%
Liquidity	29.8	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	15.85
Stop Loss	15.29 (3.5%)
Target 1 (1:1)	16.41 (+3.5%)
Target 2 (2:1)	16.97 (+7.1%)

ATR(14)	0.28 (1.8%)
Risk per Share	0.56
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	89.8	+1.59
Momentum	35.0	-0.60
Quality	78.2	+1.13
Composite	67.7

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	12.4	18.0	-31% below
P/B Ratio	0.9	1.5	Below
Dividend Yield	3.2%	4.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Real Estate median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

13.70

Market Price

15.85

Upside

-13.6%

Margin of Safety	-15.7%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	960,401,683
Terminal Value PV	2,244,333,812
Total Enterprise Value	3,204,735,495

Assumptions

Base FCF	239,545,169
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	10.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

20.78%

Full Kelly

10.39%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 35/100. Estimated win rate 51%, avg win 7.1%, avg loss 4.3%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

41.87

RSI(14)

-0.2048

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	↓ FALLING (-9.7% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Real Estate)
RS New High	No (38d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-14.6% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	41.87	NEUTRAL
Macd	-0.2048	BULLISH
Ma Cross	16.82 / 19.09	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.54x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	32.00
Bollinger Upper	16.24
SMA(200)	19.09
SMA(50)	16.82
SMA(20)	15.78
Current Price	15.85
Bollinger Lower	15.31
52-Week Low	15.25
ATR(14)	0.28

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKDOWN Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 2.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-09-01	Normal	0.71x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	No Demand	0.45x	Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest
2026-09-03	Normal	0.51x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-06	Normal	0.51x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-07	Normal	0.54x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	16.32	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	16.07	Base line
Senkou A	16.19	Leading span A
Senkou B	17.27	Leading span B
Cloud	16.19 – 17.27	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	15.85	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	16.19	Bearish
Alignment Score	1/4	BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH FADING

BB: 15.31 – 16.24 | KC: 15.38 – 16.17

Divergences (last 60 bars)

No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 15.81 Anchor: 2026-08-18 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +0.2%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/4150.SR

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	3.71B
P/E (TTM)	12.38
Forward P/E	N/A
P/B	0.89
EPS	1.28

Financial Health

Metric	Value
Revenue Growth	1.4%
Profit Margin	70.9%
ROE	7.3%
Debt/Equity	1.20
Current Ratio	4.09
Dividend Yield	3.2%
Payout Ratio	N/A
Beta	-0.03

Trading Data

15.85

Open

15.85

Day High

15.85

Day Low

167.1K

Volume (0.5x avg)

Recent News (1)

Global's December 2025 Stock Selections Conceivably Trading Below Fair Value

Simply Wall St. · 2025-12-18

Insider Activity

Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)