Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services Company

4200.SR · Consumer Cyclical · · SAR

119.50 SAR

0.00 (-0.42%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 19:30 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 25

Trend & RS 52

Momentum 45

Fundamental 74

Macro 59

Liquidity 31

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	25.0	20%
Trend & RS	52.5	30%
Momentum	45.0	15%
Fundamental	73.7	10%
Macro	59.4	20%
Liquidity	30.9	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	119.50
Stop Loss	115.32 (3.5%)
Target 1 (1:1)	123.68 (+3.5%)
Target 2 (2:1)	127.86 (+7.0%)

ATR(14)	2.09 (1.8%)
Risk per Share	4.18
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	40.8	-0.37
Momentum	45.0	-0.20
Quality	34.1	-0.64
Composite	40.0

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 4.59 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	26.1	18.0	+45% above
P/B Ratio	7.0	2.5	Above
Dividend Yield	1.7%	2.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued

Intrinsic Value

109.06

Market Price

119.50

Upside

-8.7%

Margin of Safety	-9.6%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	2,333,848,112
Terminal Value PV	8,572,238,442
Total Enterprise Value	10,906,086,554

Assumptions

Base FCF	365,600,000
Growth Rate (5yr)	18.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

31.25%

Full Kelly

15.62%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 48/100. Estimated win rate 54%, avg win 7.9%, avg loss 4.0%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

52.19

RSI(14)

0.7907

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	↑ RISING (+3.9% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	INLINE (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High	No (14d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-0.4% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	52.19	NEUTRAL
Macd	0.7907	BEARISH
Ma Cross	116.57 / 120.18	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.35x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	154.10
Bollinger Upper	121.8
SMA(200)	120.18
SMA(50)	116.57
SMA(20)	119.63
Current Price	119.50
Bollinger Lower	117.46
52-Week Low	105.30
ATR(14)	2.09

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION A Confidence

75%

Buying Climax

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 3.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-09-01	Normal	1.62x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.88x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.46x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-06	Normal	0.46x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-07	No Demand	0.35x	Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	119.05	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	119.10	Base line
Senkou A	119.08	Leading span A
Senkou B	114.05	Leading span B
Cloud	114.05 – 119.08	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	119.50	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	118.90	Bullish
Alignment Score	3/4	BULLISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE ON 9 bars Momentum: BULLISH FADING

BB: 117.46 – 121.8 | KC: 116.85 – 122.41

Divergences (last 60 bars)

No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 117.59 Anchor: 2026-07-20 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +1.6%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/4200.SR

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	11.95B
P/E (TTM)	26.15
Forward P/E	N/A
P/B	6.99
EPS	4.57

Financial Health

Metric	Value
Revenue Growth	18.0%
Profit Margin	1.6%
ROE	28.2%
Debt/Equity	278.61
Current Ratio	0.59
Dividend Yield	1.7%
Payout Ratio	N/A
Beta	0.12

Trading Data

119.50

Open

119.50

Day High

119.50

Day Low

93.5K

Volume (0.3x avg)

Insider Activity

Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)