Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company

4325.SR · Real Estate · · SAR

16.61 SAR

0.00 (-0.24%)

● Updated 2026-11-06 18:19 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 25

Trend & RS 33

Momentum 54

Fundamental (0%) 62

Macro 57

Liquidity 39

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	25.0	40%
Trend & RS	33.3	20%
Momentum	54.3	20%
Fundamental	61.9	0%
Macro	57.1	15%
Liquidity	38.9	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	16.61
Stop Loss	15.59 (6.1%)
Target 1 (1:1)	17.63 (+6.1%)
Target 2 (2:1)	18.65 (+12.3%)

ATR(14)	0.51 (3.1%)
Risk per Share	1.02
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	47.5	-0.10
Momentum	54.3	+0.17
Quality	52.5	+0.10
Composite	51.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 2.30 — Grey Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	28.1	18.0	+56% above
P/B Ratio	1.5	1.5	Inline
Dividend Yield	0.0%	4.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Real Estate median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued

Intrinsic Value

18.39

Market Price

16.61

Upside

+10.7%

Margin of Safety	+9.7%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	5,217,125,718
Terminal Value PV	21,238,532,068
Total Enterprise Value	26,455,657,786

Assumptions

Base FCF	679,041,649
Growth Rate (5yr)	25.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.6%

Recommended Size

23.09%

Full Kelly

11.55%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 38/100. Estimated win rate 51%, avg win 7.3%, avg loss 4.2%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

54.68

RSI(14)

-0.0666

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	→ FLAT (+1.3% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Real Estate)
RS New High	No (59d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+3.1% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	54.68	NEUTRAL
Macd	-0.0666	BULLISH
Ma Cross	16.66 / 16.85	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.59x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	23.55
Bollinger Upper	17.17
SMA(200)	16.85
SMA(50)	16.66
SMA(20)	15.98
Current Price	16.61
Bollinger Lower	14.8
52-Week Low	14.36
ATR(14)	0.51

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION A Confidence

100%

Selling Climax

Acc: 2.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-11-01	Normal	0.79x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-11-02	Normal	1.96x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-11-03	Normal	0.62x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-11-04	Normal	0.92x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-11-05	No Demand	0.59x	Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	15.77	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	15.80	Base line
Senkou A	15.79	Leading span A
Senkou B	16.48	Leading span B
Cloud	15.79 – 16.48	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	16.61	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	16.82	Bearish
Alignment Score	1/4	NEUTRAL

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BULLISH FADING

BB: 14.8 – 17.17 | KC: 15.18 – 16.78

Divergences (last 60 bars)

No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 16.00 Anchor: 2026-10-25 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +3.8%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/4325.SR

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	23.90B
P/E (TTM)	28.15
Forward P/E	N/A
P/B	1.48
EPS	0.59

Financial Health

Metric	Value
Revenue Growth	36.9%
Profit Margin	31.1%
ROE	5.4%
Debt/Equity	45.68
Current Ratio	2.06
Dividend Yield	N/A
Payout Ratio	N/A
Beta	N/A

Trading Data

16.61

Open

16.61

Day High

16.61

Day Low

647.4K

Volume (0.5x avg)

Insider Activity

Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)