Aljazira Mawten REIT Fund

4331.SR · Real Estate · · SAR

11.30 SAR

+0.00 (2.26%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 16:05 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 42

Momentum 54

Fundamental 37

Macro 59

Liquidity 61

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	20%
Trend & RS	42.1	30%
Momentum	54.2	15%
Fundamental	37.3	10%
Macro	59.3	20%
Liquidity	61.2	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	11.30
Stop Loss	10.74 (5.0%)
Target 1 (1:1)	11.86 (+5.0%)
Target 2 (2:1)	12.42 (+9.9%)

ATR(14)	0.28 (2.5%)
Risk per Share	0.56
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	61.1	+0.44
Momentum	49.3	-0.03
Quality	49.7	-0.01
Composite	53.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 4 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 1.51 — Distress Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	18.2	18.0	Inline
P/B Ratio	1.5	1.5	Inline
Dividend Yield	3.8%	4.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Real Estate median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

8.27

Market Price

11.30

Upside

-26.8%

Margin of Safety	-36.7%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	30,379,862
Terminal Value PV	67,195,330
Total Enterprise Value	97,575,192

Assumptions

Base FCF	5,852,800
Growth Rate (5yr)	13.4%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	12.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

32.06%

Full Kelly

16.03%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 49/100. Estimated win rate 55%, avg win 8.0%, avg loss 4.0%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

57.26

RSI(14)

0.0981

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	→ FLAT (+2.7% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Real Estate)
RS New High	Near 3-month high 3d since high
Sector Outperformance	-4.9% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	57.26	NEUTRAL
Macd	0.0981	BULLISH
Ma Cross	11.03 / 11.7	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	3.03x	HIGH

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	14.50
Bollinger Upper	11.62
SMA(200)	11.7
SMA(50)	11.03
SMA(20)	11.03
Current Price	11.30
Bollinger Lower	10.45
52-Week Low	9.92
ATR(14)	0.28

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION A Confidence

65%

Buying Climax Upthrust (potential) Selling Climax

Acc: 3.0 | Dist: 5.5 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-05	Stopping Volume	4.76x	High volume down-bar closing near low — potential climax (Stopping Volume)
2026-07-06	Normal	0.41x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	No Demand	0.21x	Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest
2026-07-08	Normal	0.65x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Upthrust	3.03x	High volume up-bar closing near low — failed breakout (Upthrust)

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	11.47	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	11.43	Base line
Senkou A	11.45	Leading span A
Senkou B	11.43	Leading span B
Cloud	11.43 – 11.45	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	11.30	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	11.00	Bullish
Alignment Score	3/4	NEUTRAL

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH FADING

BB: 10.45 – 11.62 | KC: 10.66 – 11.41

Divergences (last 60 bars)

Type	Indicator	Bars Ago	Strength
Regular Bullish	RSI	13

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 11.27 Anchor: 2026-03-01 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +0.3%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

EXHAUSTION Trend exhaustion (3 doji candles) Full data via /api/advanced/4331.SR

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	133.34M
P/E (TTM)	18.23
Forward P/E	N/A
P/B	1.50
EPS	0.62

Financial Health

Metric	Value
Revenue Growth	13.4%
Profit Margin	1.0%
ROE	8.4%
Debt/Equity	N/A
Current Ratio	0.93
Dividend Yield	3.8%
Payout Ratio	N/A
Beta	0.20

Trading Data

11.30

Open

11.30

Day High

11.30

Day Low

313.7K

Volume (6.4x avg)

Insider Activity

Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)