Alahli Capital - Al-Ahli Reit Fund

4338.SR · Real Estate · · SAR

6.96 SAR

0.00 (-0.57%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 21:02 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 85

Momentum 62

Fundamental (0%) 38

Macro 59

Liquidity 61

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	40%
Trend & RS	85.1	20%
Momentum	62.3	20%
Fundamental	37.9	0%
Macro	59.4	15%
Liquidity	61.3	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	6.96
Stop Loss	6.74 (3.2%)
Target 1 (1:1)	7.18 (+3.2%)
Target 2 (2:1)	7.40 (+6.3%)

ATR(14)	0.11 (1.6%)
Risk per Share	0.22
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	48.1	-0.08
Momentum	62.3	+0.49
Quality	22.2	-1.11
Composite	44.2

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 1.01 — Distress Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	53.5	18.0	+197% above
P/B Ratio	0.8	1.5	Below
Dividend Yield	6.3%	4.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Real Estate median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

1.57

Market Price

6.96

Upside

-77.5%

Margin of Safety	-344.2%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	69,234,354
Terminal Value PV	146,199,194
Total Enterprise Value	215,433,548

Assumptions

Base FCF	14,300,000
Growth Rate (5yr)	10.8%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	12.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

46.64%

Full Kelly

23.32%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 72/100. Estimated win rate 61%, avg win 9.3%, avg loss 3.6%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

57.58

RSI(14)

0.09

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	↑ RISING (+10.9% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Real Estate)
RS New High	No (7d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+6.0% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	57.58	NEUTRAL
Macd	0.09	BEARISH
Ma Cross	6.69 / 6.4	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	1.07x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	7.13
Bollinger Upper	7.12
SMA(200)	6.4
SMA(50)	6.69
SMA(20)	6.95
Current Price	6.96
Bollinger Lower	6.77
52-Week Low	5.80
ATR(14)	0.11

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION A Confidence

100%

Buying Climax

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 2.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-09-01	No Demand	0.55x	Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest
2026-09-02	Normal	0.68x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.66x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-06	Normal	0.66x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-07	Normal	1.07x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	7.00	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	6.83	Base line
Senkou A	6.92	Leading span A
Senkou B	6.76	Leading span B
Cloud	6.76 – 6.92	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	6.96	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	6.68	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE ON 1 bars Momentum: BULLISH FADING

BB: 6.77 – 7.12 | KC: 6.75 – 7.15

Divergences (last 60 bars)

Type	Indicator	Bars Ago
Regular Bearish	RSI	8
Regular Bearish	MACD	8
Regular Bearish	RSI	26

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 6.62 Anchor: 2026-03-01 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +5.1%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/4338.SR

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	957.00M
P/E (TTM)	53.54
Forward P/E	N/A
P/B	0.83
EPS	0.13

Financial Health

Metric	Value
Revenue Growth	10.8%
Profit Margin	9.3%
ROE	1.6%
Debt/Equity	64.45
Current Ratio	0.67
Dividend Yield	6.3%
Payout Ratio	N/A
Beta	0.07

Trading Data

6.96

Open

6.96

Day High

6.96

Day Low

170.2K

Volume (2.1x avg)

Insider Activity

Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)