Derayah Financial - Derayah Reit Fund

4339.SR · Real Estate · · SAR

5.29 SAR

0.00 (-0.19%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 18:32 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 50

Momentum 53

Fundamental 44

Macro 60

Liquidity 23

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	20%
Trend & RS	49.9	30%
Momentum	53.4	15%
Fundamental	44.4	10%
Macro	59.5	20%
Liquidity	23.4	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	5.29
Stop Loss	5.17 (2.3%)
Target 1 (1:1)	5.41 (+2.3%)
Target 2 (2:1)	5.53 (+4.5%)

ATR(14)	0.06 (1.1%)
Risk per Share	0.12
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	49.0	-0.04
Momentum	53.4	+0.14
Quality	33.5	-0.66
Composite	45.3

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 4 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	88.2	18.0	+390% above
P/B Ratio	0.7	1.5	Below
Dividend Yield	7.5%	4.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Real Estate median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

0.51

Market Price

5.29

Upside

-90.4%

Margin of Safety	-942.7%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	19,660,123
Terminal Value PV	34,881,017
Total Enterprise Value	54,541,140

Assumptions

Base FCF	5,160,337
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	12.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

36.41%

Full Kelly

18.2%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 56/100. Estimated win rate 57%, avg win 8.3%, avg loss 3.9%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

49.09

RSI(14)

-0.0054

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	↓ FALLING (+0.4% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Real Estate)
RS New High	No (52d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-4.5% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	49.09	NEUTRAL
Macd	-0.0054	BULLISH
Ma Cross	5.33 / 5.17	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.6x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	5.75
Bollinger Upper	5.35
SMA(200)	5.17
SMA(50)	5.33
SMA(20)	5.28
Current Price	5.29
Bollinger Lower	5.2
52-Week Low	4.97
ATR(14)	0.06

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION A Confidence

60%

Selling Climax Volume Dry-Up (Distribution)

Acc: 3.0 | Dist: 2.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-09-01	Normal	0.91x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.68x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	No Supply	0.11x	Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure
2026-09-06	No Supply	0.11x	Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure
2026-09-07	Normal	0.6x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	5.28	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	5.30	Base line
Senkou A	5.29	Leading span A
Senkou B	5.40	Leading span B
Cloud	5.29 – 5.40	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	5.29	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	5.31	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE ON 12 bars Momentum: BULLISH FADING

BB: 5.2 – 5.35 | KC: 5.2 – 5.36

Divergences (last 60 bars)

No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 5.26 Anchor: 2026-01-15 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +0.6%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/4339.SR

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	568.71M
P/E (TTM)	88.17
Forward P/E	N/A
P/B	0.69
EPS	0.06

Financial Health

Metric	Value
Revenue Growth	-7.3%
Profit Margin	6.6%
ROE	0.8%
Debt/Equity	75.04
Current Ratio	2.10
Dividend Yield	7.5%
Payout Ratio	N/A
Beta	0.14

Trading Data

5.29

Open

5.29

Day High

5.29

Day Low

91.2K

Volume (0.6x avg)

Insider Activity

Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)