Bupa Arabia for Cooperative Insurance Company

8210.SR · Financial Services · · SAR

156.50 SAR

0.00 (-1.20%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 18:30 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 25

Trend & RS 44

Momentum 30

Fundamental 67

Macro 60

Liquidity 41

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	25.0	20%
Trend & RS	44.0	30%
Momentum	30.1	15%
Fundamental	66.7	10%
Macro	59.5	20%
Liquidity	41.3	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	156.50
Stop Loss	148.82 (4.9%)
Target 1 (1:1)	164.18 (+4.9%)
Target 2 (2:1)	171.86 (+9.8%)

ATR(14)	3.84 (2.5%)
Risk per Share	7.68
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	63.2	+0.53
Momentum	30.1	-0.80
Quality	30.4	-0.79
Composite	41.2

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	21.0	18.0	+16% above
P/B Ratio	4.1	2.5	Above
Dividend Yield	2.5%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued

Intrinsic Value

143.64

Market Price

156.50

Upside

-8.2%

Margin of Safety	-9.0%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	4,939,513,619
Terminal Value PV	16,606,955,888
Total Enterprise Value	21,546,469,507

Assumptions

Base FCF	895,199,973
Growth Rate (5yr)	12.6%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

27.49%

Full Kelly

13.75%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 43/100. Estimated win rate 53%, avg win 7.6%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

38.26

RSI(14)

-3.1215

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	↓ FALLING (-13.3% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Financial Services)
RS New High	No (59d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-19.3% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	38.26	NEUTRAL
Macd	-3.1215	BEARISH
Ma Cross	164.93 / 162.68	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.6x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	200.00
Bollinger Upper	174.8
SMA(200)	162.68
SMA(50)	164.93
SMA(20)	163.35
Current Price	156.50
Bollinger Lower	151.91
52-Week Low	131.40
ATR(14)	3.84

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKDOWN Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 2.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-09-01	Normal	1.52x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.08x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	1.03x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-06	Normal	1.03x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-07	Normal	0.6x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	161.60	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	166.50	Base line
Senkou A	164.05	Leading span A
Senkou B	166.50	Leading span B
Cloud	164.05 – 166.50	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	156.50	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	172.80	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH

BB: 151.91 – 174.8 | KC: 157.97 – 168.74

Divergences (last 60 bars)

Type	Indicator	Bars Ago	Strength
Regular Bullish	RSI	28

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 166.94 Anchor: 2026-01-20 (52w Low) BELOW AVWAP -6.2%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/8210.SR

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	23.47B
P/E (TTM)	20.98
Forward P/E	N/A
P/B	4.12
EPS	7.46

Financial Health

Metric	Value
Revenue Growth	12.6%
Profit Margin	5.1%
ROE	20.4%
Debt/Equity	4.34
Current Ratio	0.51
Dividend Yield	2.5%
Payout Ratio	N/A
Beta	0.12

Trading Data

156.50

Open

156.50

Day High

156.50

Day Low

80.5K

Volume (0.6x avg)

Insider Activity

Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)