Aflac Incorporated
AFL · Financial Services · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)
55
/ 100
Technical
100
Trend & RS
85
Momentum
59
Fundamental
56
Macro
24
Liquidity
38
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 100.0 | 10% |
| Trend & RS | 84.6 | 10% |
| Momentum | 58.6 | 5% |
| Fundamental | 55.6 | 40% |
| Macro | 23.8 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 37.9 | 20% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 124.19 |
| Stop Loss | 119.44 (3.8%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 128.96 (+3.8%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 133.72 (+7.7%) |
| ATR(14) | 2.38 (1.9%) |
| Risk per Share | 4.76 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 77.1 | +1.08 | |
| Momentum | 58.6 | +0.34 | |
| Quality | 37.2 | -0.51 | |
| Composite | 57.6 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✗
✓
✓
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Undervalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.1 | 18.0 | Inline |
| P/B Ratio | 2.1 | 2.5 | Below |
| Dividend Yield | 1.9% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.
Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
84.56
vs
Market Price
123.71
Upside
-31.6%
| Margin of Safety | -46.3% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 11,177,871,031 |
| Terminal Value PV | 30,735,155,897 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 41,913,026,928 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 2,716,167,463 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 2.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
35.92%
Full Kelly
17.96%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 55/100. Estimated win rate 56%, avg win 8.3%, avg loss 3.9%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
4
Bullish Signals
0
Bearish Signals
61.89
RSI(14)
2.3408
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING
61
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↑ RISING (+7.3% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | INLINE (Financial Services) |
| RS New High | ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal |
| Sector Outperformance | +0.7% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING:
Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 61.89 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 2.3408 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 117.51 / 115.57 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 0.02x | LOW |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 131.19 |
| Bollinger Upper | 127.34 |
| SMA(200) | 115.57 |
| SMA(50) | 117.51 |
| SMA(20) | 121.39 |
| Current Price | 123.71 |
| Bollinger Lower | 115.45 |
| 52-Week Low | 105.76 |
| ATR(14) | 2.38 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
ACCUMULATION E
Confidence
50%
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 1.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.16x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.06x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.61x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.47x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-06 | Normal | 0.02x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 125.99 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 120.59 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 123.29 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 120.59 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 120.59 – 123.29 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 124.19 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 111.54 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 115.45 – 127.34 | KC: 117.78 – 125.01
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 115.12
Anchor: 2026-01-23 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+7.9%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/AFL
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 61.32B |
| P/E (TTM) | 18.06 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 2.09 |
| EPS | 6.85 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -31.0% |
| Profit Margin | 21.2% |
| ROE | 12.2% |
| Debt/Equity | 53.87 |
| Current Ratio | 0.67 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.9% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | N/A |
Trading Data
123.71
Open
123.71
Day High
123.71
Day Low
88.5K
Volume (0.0x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)