Aflac Incorporated

AFL · Financial Services · · USD

115.48 USD

+0.00 (2.10%)

● Updated 2026-05-12 11:49 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 74

Momentum 54

Fundamental 67

Macro 65

Liquidity 47

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	20%
Trend & RS	74.5	30%
Momentum	54.5	15%
Fundamental	67.0	10%
Macro	65.1	20%
Liquidity	46.9	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	115.48
Stop Loss	111.08 (3.8%)
Target 1 (1:1)	119.88 (+3.8%)
Target 2 (2:1)	124.28 (+7.6%)

ATR(14)	2.20 (1.9%)
Risk per Share	4.40
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	78.0	+1.12
Momentum	54.5	+0.18
Quality	45.5	-0.18
Composite	59.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 3.37 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	13.2	18.0	-27% below
P/B Ratio	2.0	2.5	Below
Dividend Yield	2.1%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued

Intrinsic Value

272.72

Market Price

115.48

Upside

+136.2%

Margin of Safety	+57.7%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	27,373,972,808
Terminal Value PV	111,437,414,136
Total Enterprise Value	138,811,386,944

Assumptions

Base FCF	3,562,894,328
Growth Rate (5yr)	25.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

44.28%

Full Kelly

22.14%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 68/100. Estimated win rate 60%, avg win 9.1%, avg loss 3.6%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

58.69

RSI(14)

0.6795

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-4.3% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Financial Services)
RS New High	No (29d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+2.9% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	58.69	NEUTRAL
Macd	0.6795	BEARISH
Ma Cross	111.53 / 109.14	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.9x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	119.32
Bollinger Upper	116.65
SMA(200)	109.14
SMA(50)	111.53
SMA(20)	114.27
Current Price	115.48
Bollinger Lower	111.89
52-Week Low	96.95
ATR(14)	2.2

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence

50%

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 1.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-05	Normal	1.06x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-06	Normal	1.17x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07	Normal	0.83x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-08	Normal	0.66x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11	Normal	0.9x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	113.15	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	113.07	Base line
Senkou A	113.11	Leading span A
Senkou B	111.41	Leading span B
Cloud	111.41 – 113.11	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	115.48	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	110.26	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH