Aflac Incorporated
AFL · Financial Services · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)
64
/ 100
Technical
80
Trend & RS
85
Momentum
62
Fundamental
60
Macro
24
Liquidity
58
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 80.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 84.6 | 30% |
| Momentum | 62.0 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 59.5 | 10% |
| Macro | 23.6 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 58.2 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 126.24 |
| Stop Loss | 121.48 (3.8%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 131.00 (+3.8%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 135.76 (+7.5%) |
| ATR(14) | 2.38 (1.9%) |
| Risk per Share | 4.76 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 67.9 | +0.71 | |
| Momentum | 62.0 | +0.48 | |
| Quality | 37.2 | -0.51 | |
| Composite | 55.7 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✗
✓
✓
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
3.17
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Undervalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.4 | 18.0 | Inline |
| P/B Ratio | 2.1 | 2.5 | Below |
| Dividend Yield | 1.9% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.
Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
84.56
vs
Market Price
126.24
Upside
-33.0%
| Margin of Safety | -49.3% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 11,177,871,101 |
| Terminal Value PV | 30,735,156,092 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 41,913,027,193 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 2,716,167,480 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 2.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
42.22%
Full Kelly
21.11%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 64/100. Estimated win rate 59%, avg win 8.9%, avg loss 3.7%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
4
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
71.23
RSI(14)
2.4272
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING
61
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↑ RISING (+6.8% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | INLINE (Financial Services) |
| RS New High | ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal |
| Sector Outperformance | -4.0% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING:
Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 71.23 | OVERBOUGHT |
| Macd | 2.4272 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 117.36 / 115.48 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.4x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 131.19 |
| Bollinger Upper | 127.44 |
| SMA(200) | 115.48 |
| SMA(50) | 117.36 |
| SMA(20) | 120.91 |
| Current Price | 126.24 |
| Bollinger Lower | 114.38 |
| 52-Week Low | 105.76 |
| ATR(14) | 2.38 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKUP
Confidence
43%
Sign of Strength
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 1.0 |
Markup: 1.5 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.3x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.11x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.02x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.54x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.4x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 125.99 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 120.59 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 123.29 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 120.59 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 120.59 – 123.29 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 126.24 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 111.18 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 114.38 – 127.44 | KC: 117.38 – 124.44
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 115.12
Anchor: 2026-01-23 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+9.7%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/AFL
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 62.57B |
| P/E (TTM) | 18.43 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 2.13 |
| EPS | 6.85 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -31.0% |
| Profit Margin | 21.2% |
| ROE | 12.2% |
| Debt/Equity | 53.87 |
| Current Ratio | 0.67 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.9% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | N/A |
Trading Data
126.24
Open
126.24
Day High
126.24
Day Low
2.33M
Volume (1.2x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)