Aflac Incorporated

AFL · Financial Services · · USD

117.21 USD

0.00 (-0.97%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 22:05 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 56

Momentum 55

Fundamental (0%) 59

Macro 64

Liquidity 49

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	40%
Trend & RS	56.4	20%
Momentum	54.7	20%
Fundamental	58.8	0%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	49.4	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	117.21
Stop Loss	113.45 (3.2%)
Target 1 (1:1)	120.97 (+3.2%)
Target 2 (2:1)	124.73 (+6.4%)

ATR(14)	1.88 (1.6%)
Risk per Share	3.76
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	78.7	+1.15
Momentum	54.7	+0.19
Quality	46.3	-0.15
Composite	59.9

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 3.10 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	12.6	18.0	-30% below
P/B Ratio	1.9	2.5	Below
Dividend Yield	2.1%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued

Intrinsic Value

114.44

Market Price

117.21

Upside

-2.4%

Margin of Safety	-2.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	15,300,565,655
Terminal Value PV	42,071,094,705
Total Enterprise Value	57,371,660,360

Assumptions

Base FCF	3,717,961,898
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

42.22%

Full Kelly

21.11%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 64/100. Estimated win rate 59%, avg win 8.9%, avg loss 3.7%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

43.64

RSI(14)

-1.3386

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-5.1% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Financial Services)
RS New High	No (27d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-8.5% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	43.64	NEUTRAL
Macd	-1.3386	BULLISH
Ma Cross	121.05 / 113.5	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.89x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	130.22
Bollinger Upper	122.2
SMA(200)	113.5
SMA(50)	121.05
SMA(20)	118.16
Current Price	117.21
Bollinger Lower	114.11
52-Week Low	104.66
ATR(14)	1.88

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence

50%

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 1.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.8x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.48x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.04x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.96x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.89x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	117.03	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	121.26	Base line
Senkou A	119.14	Leading span A
Senkou B	122.21	Leading span B
Cloud	119.14 – 122.21	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	117.21	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	126.84	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH