Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
AJG · Financial Services · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)
61
/ 100
Technical
100
Trend & RS
90
Momentum
86
Fundamental
67
Macro
24
Liquidity
39
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 100.0 | 10% |
| Trend & RS | 89.5 | 10% |
| Momentum | 85.5 | 5% |
| Fundamental | 66.7 | 40% |
| Macro | 23.8 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 38.6 | 20% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 281.09 |
| Stop Loss | 264.19 (6.0%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 297.99 (+6.0%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 314.89 (+12.0%) |
| ATR(14) | 8.45 (3.0%) |
| Risk per Share | 16.90 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 44.6 | -0.21 | |
| Momentum | 85.5 | +1.42 | |
| Quality | 30.6 | -0.78 | |
| Composite | 53.6 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
6
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 43.0 | 18.0 | +139% above |
| P/B Ratio | 3.0 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 97.0% | 2.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
174.86
vs
Market Price
281.51
Upside
-37.9%
| Margin of Safety | -61.0% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 9,266,080,462 |
| Terminal Value PV | 35,570,034,268 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 44,836,114,730 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 1,343,614,742 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 20.9% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
40.23%
Full Kelly
20.11%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 61/100. Estimated win rate 58%, avg win 8.7%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
4
Bullish Signals
0
Bearish Signals
64.63
RSI(14)
10.9531
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING
73
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↑ RISING (+16.6% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Financial Services) |
| RS New High | ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal |
| Sector Outperformance | +10.0% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING:
Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 64.63 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 10.9531 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 249.89 / 231.85 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 0.02x | LOW |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 294.53 |
| Bollinger Upper | 295.65 |
| SMA(200) | 231.85 |
| SMA(50) | 249.89 |
| SMA(20) | 262.95 |
| Current Price | 281.51 |
| Bollinger Lower | 230.24 |
| 52-Week Low | 190.75 |
| ATR(14) | 8.45 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKUP
Confidence
100%
Sign of Strength
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 3.5 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.6x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.19x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.28x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.55x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-06 | Normal | 0.02x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 275.14 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 257.09 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 266.12 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 257.09 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 257.09 – 266.12 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 281.09 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 226.11 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 230.24 – 295.65 | KC: 250.54 – 275.35
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 239.27
Anchor: 2026-05-13 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+17.5%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/AJG
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 72.18B |
| P/E (TTM) | 42.98 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 3.00 |
| EPS | 6.55 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 20.9% |
| Profit Margin | 10.8% |
| ROE | 7.2% |
| Debt/Equity | 56.04 |
| Current Ratio | 1.05 |
| Dividend Yield | 97.0% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.46 |
Trading Data
281.51
Open
281.51
Day High
281.51
Day Low
94.6K
Volume (0.1x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)