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Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

AJG · Financial Services · · USD
262.69 USD
0.00 (-1.49%)
● Updated 2026-09-07 21:05 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Short-term (Swing)

75
/ 100
Technical 75
Trend & RS 86
Momentum 80
Fundamental (0%) 67
Macro 64
Liquidity 46
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 75.0 40%
Trend & RS 85.9 20%
Momentum 80.1 20%
Fundamental 67.2 0%
Macro 64.4 15%
Liquidity 45.8 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 262.69
Stop Loss 248.19 (5.5%)
Target 1 (1:1) 277.19 (+5.5%)
Target 2 (2:1) 291.69 (+11.0%)
ATR(14) 7.25 (2.8%)
Risk per Share 14.50
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 43.4 -0.26
Momentum 80.1 +1.20
Quality 30.0 -0.80
Composite 51.2

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score 3.39 — Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 43.5 18.0 +142% above
P/B Ratio 2.8 2.5 Above
Dividend Yield 1.1% 2.0% Below avg

Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
188.26
vs
Market Price
262.69
Upside
-28.3%
Margin of Safety -39.5%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)9,516,557,796
Terminal Value PV38,741,201,349
Total Enterprise Value48,257,759,145

Assumptions

Base FCF1,238,639,712
Growth Rate (5yr)25.0%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
48.8%
Full Kelly
24.4%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 75/100. Estimated win rate 63%, avg win 9.5%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
54.4
RSI(14)
4.0627
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

64
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY ↑ RISING (+16.8% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector OUTPERFORMING (Financial Services)
RS New High No (27d since high)
Sector Outperformance +13.4% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 54.4 NEUTRAL
Macd 4.0627 BEARISH
Ma Cross 253.69 / 233.11 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.74x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High313.55
Bollinger Upper273.63
SMA(200)233.11
SMA(50)253.69
SMA(20)259.72
Current Price262.69
Bollinger Lower245.82
52-Week Low190.75
ATR(14)7.25

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0  |  Dist: 0.0  |  Markup: 2.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-31 Normal 1.1x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01 Normal 1.49x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 1.36x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 1.1x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 0.74x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 266.02 Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 256.81 Base line
Senkou A 261.41 Leading span A
Senkou B 243.96 Leading span B
Cloud 243.96 – 261.41 Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud 262.69 Above Cloud
Chikou Span 249.42 Bullish
Alignment Score 4/4 BULLISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BULLISH FADING
BB: 245.82 – 273.63  |  KC: 248.81 – 270.64

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Hidden Bullish RSI 15
Hidden Bullish RSI 25

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 233.78 Anchor: 2026-05-13 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +12.4%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

EXHAUSTION Trend exhaustion (4 doji candles) Full data via /api/advanced/AJG

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap67.34B
P/E (TTM)43.49
Forward P/EN/A
P/B2.84
EPS6.04

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth30.9%
Profit Margin10.4%
ROE6.7%
Debt/Equity59.40
Current Ratio1.05
Dividend Yield1.1%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta0.51

Trading Data

262.69
Open
262.69
Day High
262.69
Day Low
1.01M
Volume (0.6x avg)

Recent News (8)

AJG's Risk Management Business Outpaces Brokerage Organic Growth
Zacks · 2026-09-07
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Do You Believe Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) Could Deliver Mid-Teens EPS Growth for Years?
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The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Willis Towers Watson, Arthur J. Gallagher and Aon
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Barchart · 2026-08-26
If You Can Only Afford to Buy 1 of These 2 Bullish Price Surprise Stocks, This Is My Top Pick
Barchart · 2026-08-25
Why Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) Is Up 9.7% After Surging Revenue And Earnings Growth Update
Simply Wall St. · 2026-08-25

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —