The Allstate Corporation

ALL · Financial Services · · USD

251.61 USD

+0.00 (1.19%)

● Updated 2026-07-11 19:13 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 80

Trend & RS 91

Momentum 85

Fundamental 83

Macro 75

Liquidity 45

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	80.0	20%
Trend & RS	91.1	30%
Momentum	85.4	15%
Fundamental	83.3	10%
Macro	74.8	20%
Liquidity	44.9	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	251.61
Stop Loss	240.39 (4.5%)
Target 1 (1:1)	262.83 (+4.5%)
Target 2 (2:1)	274.05 (+8.9%)

ATR(14)	5.61 (2.2%)
Risk per Share	11.22
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	90.5	+1.62
Momentum	85.4	+1.41
Quality	51.9	+0.08
Composite	75.9

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 6.60 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	5.6	18.0	-69% below
P/B Ratio	2.2	2.5	Below
Dividend Yield	1.7%	2.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued

Intrinsic Value

582.55

Market Price

251.61

Upside

+131.5%

Margin of Safety	+56.8%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	39,388,516,087
Terminal Value PV	110,570,767,935
Total Enterprise Value	149,959,284,022

Assumptions

Base FCF	9,306,281,461
Growth Rate (5yr)	3.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

52.45%

Full Kelly

26.22%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 82/100. Estimated win rate 65%, avg win 9.9%, avg loss 3.4%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

71.18

RSI(14)

8.9967

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+6.6% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Financial Services)
RS New High	Near 3-month high 2d since high
Sector Outperformance	+11.0% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	71.18	OVERBOUGHT
Macd	8.9967	BULLISH
Ma Cross	222.86 / 208.74	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.54x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	257.67
Bollinger Upper	259.96
SMA(200)	208.74
SMA(50)	222.86
SMA(20)	235.59
Current Price	251.61
Bollinger Lower	211.23
52-Week Low	188.08
ATR(14)	5.61

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-06	Normal	0.79x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	1.2x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	0.86x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.92x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10	No Supply	0.54x	Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	247.09	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	233.31	Base line
Senkou A	240.20	Leading span A
Senkou B	229.94	Leading span B
Cloud	229.94 – 240.20	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	251.61	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	209.34	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH