The Allstate Corporation

ALL · Financial Services · · USD

259.57 USD

0.00 (-1.35%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 21:05 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 83

Momentum 77

Fundamental (0%) 83

Macro 64

Liquidity 48

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	40%
Trend & RS	82.7	20%
Momentum	77.1	20%
Fundamental	83.3	0%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	48.2	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	259.57
Stop Loss	248.45 (4.3%)
Target 1 (1:1)	270.69 (+4.3%)
Target 2 (2:1)	281.81 (+8.6%)

ATR(14)	5.56 (2.1%)
Risk per Share	11.12
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	91.9	+1.67
Momentum	77.1	+1.09
Quality	52.6	+0.11
Composite	73.9

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 6.74 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	5.2	18.0	-71% below
P/B Ratio	2.1	2.5	Below
Dividend Yield	1.7%	2.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued

Intrinsic Value

930.89

Market Price

259.57

Upside

+258.6%

Margin of Safety	+72.1%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	54,539,406,618
Terminal Value PV	180,843,196,349
Total Enterprise Value	235,382,602,967

Assumptions

Base FCF	10,102,180,818
Growth Rate (5yr)	11.8%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

48.11%

Full Kelly

24.05%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 74/100. Estimated win rate 62%, avg win 9.4%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

51.96

RSI(14)

1.1785

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	→ FLAT (+13.2% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Financial Services)
RS New High	No (27d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+9.8% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	51.96	NEUTRAL
Macd	1.1785	BEARISH
Ma Cross	255.75 / 219.74	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.8x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	277.22
Bollinger Upper	265.69
SMA(200)	219.74
SMA(50)	255.75
SMA(20)	258.82
Current Price	259.57
Bollinger Lower	251.94
52-Week Low	188.08
ATR(14)	5.56

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.39x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	0.68x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.69x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.84x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.8x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	260.81	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	263.02	Base line
Senkou A	261.91	Leading span A
Senkou B	252.56	Leading span B
Cloud	252.56 – 261.91	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	259.57	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	262.99	Bearish
Alignment Score	1/4	NEUTRAL