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The Allstate Corporation

ALL · Financial Services · · USD
213.80 USD
+0.00 (0.30%)
● Updated 2026-05-12 12:49 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Short-term (Swing)

68
/ 100
Technical 75
Trend & RS 73
Momentum 54
Fundamental (0%) 83
Macro 65
Liquidity 46
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 75.0 40%
Trend & RS 73.4 20%
Momentum 54.0 20%
Fundamental 83.3 0%
Macro 65.1 15%
Liquidity 46.4 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 213.80
Stop Loss 203.74 (4.7%)
Target 1 (1:1) 223.86 (+4.7%)
Target 2 (2:1) 233.92 (+9.4%)
ATR(14) 5.03 (2.4%)
Risk per Share 10.06
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 92.9 +1.71
Momentum 54.0 +0.16
Quality 51.9 +0.08
Composite 66.2

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score 5.82 — Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 4.7 18.0 -74% below
P/B Ratio 1.9 2.5 Below
Dividend Yield 2.0% 2.0% Above avg

Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued

Intrinsic Value
582.67
vs
Market Price
213.80
Upside
+172.5%
Margin of Safety +63.3%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)39,397,232,290
Terminal Value PV110,595,235,915
Total Enterprise Value149,992,468,205

Assumptions

Base FCF9,308,340,829
Growth Rate (5yr)3.0%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
44.28%
Full Kelly
22.14%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 68/100. Estimated win rate 60%, avg win 9.1%, avg loss 3.6%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
49.71
RSI(14)
1.1904
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

58
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY → FLAT (+0.7% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector OUTPERFORMING (Financial Services)
RS New High No (29d since high)
Sector Outperformance +7.8% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 49.71 NEUTRAL
Macd 1.1904 BEARISH
Ma Cross 211.29 / 204.68 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.87x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High222.23
Bollinger Upper219.8
SMA(200)204.68
SMA(50)211.29
SMA(20)215.6
Current Price213.80
Bollinger Lower211.39
52-Week Low188.08
ATR(14)5.03

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence
50%
Acc: 1.0  |  Dist: 1.0  |  Markup: 0.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-05-05 Normal 1.01x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-06 Normal 1.18x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07 Normal 1.91x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-08 Normal 1.0x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11 Normal 0.87x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 215.87 Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 214.08 Base line
Senkou A 214.97 Leading span A
Senkou B 211.92 Leading span B
Cloud 211.92 – 214.97 Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud 213.80 Inside Cloud
Chikou Span 208.36 Bullish
Alignment Score 3/4 NEUTRAL

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE ON 8 bars Momentum: BEARISH FADING
BB: 211.39 – 219.8  |  KC: 208.06 – 223.14

Divergences (last 60 bars)

No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 206.21 Anchor: 2025-10-29 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +3.7%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/ALL

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap55.04B
P/E (TTM)4.73
Forward P/EN/A
P/B1.86
EPS45.20

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth3.0%
Profit Margin17.8%
ROE45.2%
Debt/Equity23.72
Current Ratio0.36
Dividend Yield2.0%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta0.21

Trading Data

213.80
Open
213.80
Day High
213.80
Day Low
1.01M
Volume (0.7x avg)

Recent News (8)

Is Allstate (ALL) Pricing Reflect Its Recent Returns And Insurance Sector Headlines
Simply Wall St. · 2026-05-11
How A Top-Performing Analyst-Driven Fund Beats The Market
Investor's Business Daily · 2026-05-08
Skyward Specialty Q1 Earnings Beat on Apollo Lift, Premium Growth
Zacks · 2026-05-07
Piper Sandler Raises its Price Target on Allstate (ALL) to $268
Insider Monkey · 2026-05-07
Will Higher Costs Hurt Skyward Specialty's Q1 Earnings?
Zacks · 2026-05-05
Berkshire earnings: Greg Abel still has 'big shoes to fill' as CEO
Yahoo Finance Video · 2026-05-04
Allstate (ALL) Valuation Check After Strong Q1 Beat And US$4b Share Buyback Announcement
Simply Wall St. · 2026-05-03
Here's Why We Think Allstate (NYSE:ALL) Might Deserve Your Attention Today
Simply Wall St. · 2026-05-03

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —