Applied Materials, Inc.

AMAT · Technology · · USD

593.81 USD

+0.00 (0.87%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 18:06 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 100

Momentum 91

Fundamental 89

Macro 65

Liquidity 47

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	20%
Trend & RS	99.6	30%
Momentum	91.0	15%
Fundamental	88.9	10%
Macro	65.2	20%
Liquidity	46.7	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	599.20
Stop Loss	507.94 (15.2%)
Target 1 (1:1)	690.46 (+15.2%)
Target 2 (2:1)	781.72 (+30.5%)

ATR(14)	45.63 (7.6%)
Risk per Share	91.26
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	0.0	-2.00
Momentum	91.0	+1.64
Quality	78.5	+1.14
Composite	56.5

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 42.99 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	55.8	28.0	+99% above
P/B Ratio	19.7	6.0	Above
Dividend Yield	36.0%	0.8%	Above avg

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

195.31

Market Price

593.81

Upside

-67.1%

Margin of Safety	-204.0%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	36,123,512,526
Terminal Value PV	118,943,819,198
Total Enterprise Value	155,067,331,724

Assumptions

Base FCF	6,764,534,344
Growth Rate (5yr)	11.4%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

53.04%

Full Kelly

26.52%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 83/100. Estimated win rate 65%, avg win 10.0%, avg loss 3.3%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

53.54

RSI(14)

25.1656

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+39.9% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High	No (7d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+35.2% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	53.54	NEUTRAL
Macd	25.1656	BEARISH
Ma Cross	507.92 / 348.64	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.16x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	739.67
Bollinger Upper	700.89
SMA(200)	348.64
SMA(50)	507.92
SMA(20)	608.55
Current Price	593.81
Bollinger Lower	516.22
52-Week Low	154.47
ATR(14)	45.63

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-06	Normal	0.67x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	0.98x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	0.59x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	1.12x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10	No Supply	0.16x	Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	633.65	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	596.29	Base line
Senkou A	614.97	Leading span A
Senkou B	558.14	Leading span B
Cloud	558.14 – 614.97	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	599.20	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	500.77	Bullish
Alignment Score	3/4	NEUTRAL