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Applied Materials, Inc.

AMAT · Technology · · USD
454.71 USD
+0.00 (4.31%)
● Updated 2026-09-07 20:33 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)

64
/ 100
Technical 50
Trend & RS 73
Momentum 54
Fundamental 89
Macro 64
Liquidity 53
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 50.0 20%
Trend & RS 72.6 30%
Momentum 53.9 15%
Fundamental 88.9 10%
Macro 64.4 20%
Liquidity 53.4 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 454.71
Stop Loss 407.21 (10.4%)
Target 1 (1:1) 502.21 (+10.4%)
Target 2 (2:1) 549.71 (+20.9%)
ATR(14) 23.75 (5.2%)
Risk per Share 47.50
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 8.0 -1.68
Momentum 53.9 +0.16
Quality 78.3 +1.13
Composite 46.8

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score 33.66 — Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 39.2 28.0 +40% above
P/B Ratio 14.1 6.0 Above
Dividend Yield 47.0% 0.8% Above avg

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
358.86
vs
Market Price
454.71
Upside
-21.1%
Margin of Safety -26.7%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)56,287,111,406
Terminal Value PV228,506,828,058
Total Enterprise Value284,793,939,464

Assumptions

Base FCF7,364,584,271
Growth Rate (5yr)24.8%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
42.22%
Full Kelly
21.11%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 64/100. Estimated win rate 59%, avg win 8.9%, avg loss 3.7%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

2
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
39.75
RSI(14)
-23.2807
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

93
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
RS vs SPY ↓ FALLING (-4.2% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector INLINE (Technology)
RS New High No (47d since high)
Sector Outperformance +6.7% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 39.75 NEUTRAL
Macd -23.2807 BEARISH
Ma Cross 533.27 / 406.28 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short BELOW SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.81x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High739.67
Bollinger Upper556.71
SMA(200)406.28
SMA(50)533.27
SMA(20)489.24
Current Price454.71
Bollinger Lower421.77
52-Week Low161.75
ATR(14)23.75

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKDOWN Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0  |  Dist: 0.0  |  Markup: 0.0  |  Markdown: 2.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-31 Normal 0.83x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01 Normal 0.96x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 0.88x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 0.81x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 0.81x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 459.22 Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 494.64 Base line
Senkou A 476.93 Leading span A
Senkou B 582.50 Leading span B
Cloud 476.93 – 582.50 Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud 454.71 Below Cloud
Chikou Span 507.13 Bearish
Alignment Score 0/4 BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH FADING
BB: 421.77 – 556.71  |  KC: 456.62 – 521.86

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Hidden Bearish RSI 24

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 377.08 Anchor: 2025-09-05 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +20.6%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/AMAT

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap360.86B
P/E (TTM)39.20
Forward P/EN/A
P/B14.08
EPS11.60

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth24.8%
Profit Margin30.1%
ROE41.1%
Debt/Equity28.67
Current Ratio2.42
Dividend Yield47.0%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta1.60

Trading Data

454.71
Open
454.71
Day High
454.71
Day Low
6.02M
Volume (0.6x avg)

Recent News (8)

Wall Street Analysts Think Applied Materials (AMAT) Is a Good Investment: Is It?
Zacks · 2026-09-07
Lam Research Nearly Triples in a Year: Is the Stock Still Worth Buying?
Zacks · 2026-09-07
Jim Cramer Shares His Playbook for Buying Applied Materials (AMAT)
Insider Monkey · 2026-09-05
Memory, Other AI-Related Stocks Lead the Market’s Top Performers Friday
Investopedia · 2026-09-04
Can Applied Materials (AMAT) Still Look Cheap After A 237% Run?
Simply Wall St. · 2026-09-03
Why Did Applied Materials Stock Nearly Triple On Single-Digit Trailing Revenue Growth?
Trefis · 2026-09-03
AMAT Rides on AI-Led WFE Demand: Can it Sustain the Momentum?
Zacks · 2026-09-03
SEMI’s CEO Has Watched Four Decades of Chip Cycles. He Says This One Only Goes Up.
24/7 Wall St. · 2026-09-03

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —