Aon plc

AON · Financial Services · · USD

323.09 USD

0.00 (-1.20%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 21:05 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 25

Trend & RS 43

Momentum 45

Fundamental 55

Macro 64

Liquidity 55

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	25.0	20%
Trend & RS	42.9	30%
Momentum	44.8	15%
Fundamental	55.4	10%
Macro	64.4	20%
Liquidity	54.9	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	323.09
Stop Loss	303.45 (6.1%)
Target 1 (1:1)	342.73 (+6.1%)
Target 2 (2:1)	362.37 (+12.2%)

ATR(14)	9.82 (3.0%)
Risk per Share	19.64
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	52.8	+0.11
Momentum	44.8	-0.21
Quality	59.9	+0.40
Composite	52.5

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 4 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 3.32 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	17.8	18.0	Inline
P/B Ratio	7.1	2.5	Above
Dividend Yield	1.0%	2.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

225.76

Market Price

323.09

Upside

-30.1%

Margin of Safety	-43.1%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	12,732,808,210
Terminal Value PV	35,157,099,088
Total Enterprise Value	47,889,907,298

Assumptions

Base FCF	3,076,667,295
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.2%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

29.36%

Full Kelly

14.68%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 46/100. Estimated win rate 54%, avg win 7.7%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

35.18

RSI(14)

-7.15

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	→ FLAT (-6.1% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Financial Services)
RS New High	No (27d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-9.6% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	35.18	NEUTRAL
Macd	-7.15	BEARISH
Ma Cross	352.74 / 336.07	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	1.46x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	382.34
Bollinger Upper	372.01
SMA(200)	336.07
SMA(50)	352.74
SMA(20)	346.31
Current Price	323.09
Bollinger Lower	320.61
52-Week Low	304.59
ATR(14)	9.82

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION A Confidence

40%

Selling Climax Sign of Weakness Buying Climax

Acc: 3.0 | Dist: 3.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 1.5

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Stopping Volume	2.41x	High volume down-bar closing near low — potential climax (Stopping Volume)
2026-09-01	Normal	2.41x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	2.17x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	1.45x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	1.46x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	336.61	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	339.62	Base line
Senkou A	338.12	Leading span A
Senkou B	347.20	Leading span B
Cloud	338.12 – 347.20	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	323.09	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	359.73	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH