Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.
APD · Basic Materials · · USDFahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)
68
/ 100
Technical
100
Trend & RS
78
Momentum
65
Fundamental
63
Macro
22
Liquidity
79
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 100.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 77.9 | 30% |
| Momentum | 65.0 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 63.3 | 10% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 78.9 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 309.49 |
| Stop Loss | 297.59 (3.9%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 321.39 (+3.9%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 333.29 (+7.7%) |
| ATR(14) | 5.95 (1.9%) |
| Risk per Share | 11.90 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 31.3 | -0.75 | |
| Momentum | 59.1 | +0.36 | |
| Quality | 23.6 | -1.06 | |
| Composite | 38.0 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
3.55
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 129.5 | 18.0 | +619% above |
| P/B Ratio | 4.8 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 2.3% | 2.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Basic Materials median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
45.46
vs
Market Price
309.49
Upside
-85.3%
| Margin of Safety | -580.7% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 2,330,214,681 |
| Terminal Value PV | 7,793,933,322 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 10,124,148,003 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 425,774,733 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 12.3% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
44.46%
Full Kelly
22.23%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 68/100. Estimated win rate 60%, avg win 9.1%, avg loss 3.6%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
4
Bullish Signals
0
Bearish Signals
58.44
RSI(14)
6.7454
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
69
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+7.0% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Basic Materials) |
| RS New High | ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal |
| Sector Outperformance | +3.7% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 58.44 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 6.7454 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 294.97 / 289.7 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 2.04x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 324.00 |
| Bollinger Upper | 324.51 |
| SMA(200) | 289.7 |
| SMA(50) | 294.97 |
| SMA(20) | 303.38 |
| Current Price | 309.49 |
| Bollinger Lower | 282.25 |
| 52-Week Low | 229.11 |
| ATR(14) | 5.95 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
DISTRIBUTION C
Confidence
78%
Upthrust (potential)
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 3.5 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.2x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.23x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.0x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.56x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Stopping Volume | 2.04x | High volume down-bar closing near low — potential climax (Stopping Volume) |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 313.54 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 295.64 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 304.59 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 295.64 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 295.64 – 304.59 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 309.49 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 273.33 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 282.25 – 324.51 | KC: 295.02 – 311.74
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Bullish | RSI | 26 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 281.25
Anchor: 2025-12-10 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+10.0%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 68.92B |
| P/E (TTM) | 129.49 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 4.83 |
| EPS | 2.39 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 12.3% |
| Profit Margin | 4.1% |
| ROE | 3.2% |
| Debt/Equity | 106.29 |
| Current Ratio | 1.06 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.3% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.67 |
Trading Data
309.49
Open
309.49
Day High
309.49
Day Low
2.22M
Volume (2.1x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)