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AvalonBay Communities Inc

AVB · Real Estate · · USD
184.06 USD
+0.00 (0.00%)
● Updated 2026-08-25 22:52 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

70
/ 100
Technical 100
Trend & RS 67
Momentum 65
Fundamental 48
Macro 64
Liquidity 44
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 100.0 20%
Trend & RS 67.2 30%
Momentum 65.0 15%
Fundamental 48.3 10%
Macro 64.4 20%
Liquidity 43.7 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 68.14
Stop Loss 65.18 (4.3%)
Target 1 (1:1) 71.10 (+4.3%)
Target 2 (2:1) 74.06 (+8.7%)
ATR(14) 1.48 (2.2%)
Risk per Share 2.96
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 58.7 +0.35
Momentum 59.1 +0.36
Quality 41.2 -0.35
Composite 53.0

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score 2.05 — Grey Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 25.2 18.0 +40% above
P/B Ratio 2.2 1.5 Above
Dividend Yield 3.9% 4.0% Below avg

Comparing against Real Estate median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
91.17
vs
Market Price
184.06
Upside
-50.5%
Margin of Safety -101.9%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)3,456,234,455
Terminal Value PV9,563,034,338
Total Enterprise Value13,019,268,793

Assumptions

Base FCF832,797,720
Growth Rate (5yr)2.3%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
45.62%
Full Kelly
22.81%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 70/100. Estimated win rate 61%, avg win 9.2%, avg loss 3.6%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

4
Bullish Signals
0
Bearish Signals
57.39
RSI(14)
-0.4061
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

55
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY ↓ FALLING (-1.2% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector OUTPERFORMING (Real Estate)
RS New High No (27d since high)
Sector Outperformance +5.3% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 57.39 NEUTRAL
Macd -0.4061 BULLISH
Ma Cross 66.98 / 63.54 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 1.39x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High185.62
Bollinger Upper69.43
SMA(200)63.54
SMA(50)66.98
SMA(20)66.35
Current Price184.06
Bollinger Lower63.27
52-Week Low57.32
ATR(14)1.48

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION A Confidence
100%
Selling Climax
Acc: 2.0  |  Dist: 0.0  |  Markup: 0.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-18 Normal 1.43x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-08-19 Normal 1.38x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-08-20 Normal 0.97x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-08-21 Normal 1.61x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-08-24 Normal 1.39x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 65.94 Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 66.22 Base line
Senkou A 66.08 Leading span A
Senkou B 66.80 Leading span B
Cloud 66.08 – 66.80 Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud 68.14 Above Cloud
Chikou Span 68.69 Bearish
Alignment Score 1/4 NEUTRAL

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BULLISH
BB: 63.27 – 69.43  |  KC: 64.13 – 68.58

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Hidden Bearish MACD 14
Regular Bearish RSI 28
Hidden Bullish RSI 29

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 65.02 Anchor: 2026-03-27 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +4.8%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/AVB

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap26.28B
P/E (TTM)25.25
Forward P/EN/A
P/B2.17
EPS7.29

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth2.3%
Profit Margin33.3%
ROE8.5%
Debt/Equity75.13
Current Ratio0.34
Dividend Yield3.9%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta0.77

Trading Data

184.06
Open
184.06
Day High
184.06
Day Low
2.47M
Volume (0.7x avg)

Recent News (8)

Vivmark a potential ‘blue chip’ stock for investors: JPM analyst
Multifamily Dive · 2026-09-01
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Multifamily Dive · 2026-08-27
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Multifamily Dive · 2026-08-24
Why AvalonBay Communities (AVB) Is Back In The Spotlight
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Meet the Newest Member of the S&P 500. It's Up 365% Since Its IPO, and It Can Keep Climbing From Here.
Motley Fool · 2026-08-21
The Bull Case For AvalonBay Communities (AVB) Could Change Following Index Exit And Vivmark Overhaul - Learn Why
Simply Wall St. · 2026-08-20
Vivmark Becomes Largest US Apartment REIT After Merger
CRE Daily · 2026-08-19
Upvoted Into S&P 500, Is Reddit Getting Ratioed?
The Daily Upside · 2026-08-19

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —