AutoZone, Inc.
AZO · Consumer Cyclical · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)
58
/ 100
Technical
75
Trend & RS
71
Momentum
59
Fundamental
59
Macro
24
Liquidity
44
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 75.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 71.0 | 30% |
| Momentum | 59.3 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 59.0 | 10% |
| Macro | 23.6 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 43.8 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 3308.97 |
| Stop Loss | 3132.15 (5.3%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 3485.79 (+5.3%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 3662.61 (+10.7%) |
| ATR(14) | 88.41 (2.7%) |
| Risk per Share | 176.82 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 57.5 | +0.30 | |
| Momentum | 59.3 | +0.37 | |
| Quality | 28.4 | -0.86 | |
| Composite | 48.4 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
4
/9 —
Average
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
3.68
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.7 | 18.0 | +20% above |
| P/B Ratio | -21.4 | 2.5 | Inline |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
2197.90
vs
Market Price
3308.97
Upside
-33.6%
| Margin of Safety | -50.6% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 8,939,097,977 |
| Terminal Value PV | 26,434,616,100 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 35,373,714,077 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 1,964,153,376 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 5.6% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
38.11%
Full Kelly
19.05%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 58/100. Estimated win rate 57%, avg win 8.5%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
65.98
RSI(14)
87.4803
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
52
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↑ RISING (+10.8% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical) |
| RS New High | ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal |
| Sector Outperformance | +4.4% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 65.98 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 87.4803 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 2985.91 / 3255.86 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 0.95x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 3996.25 |
| Bollinger Upper | 3390.19 |
| SMA(200) | 3255.86 |
| SMA(50) | 2985.91 |
| SMA(20) | 3129.72 |
| Current Price | 3308.97 |
| Bollinger Lower | 2869.26 |
| 52-Week Low | 2730.65 |
| ATR(14) | 88.41 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.21x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 0.85x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.73x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.07x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 0.95x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 3221.82 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 3044.82 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 3133.32 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 3044.82 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 3044.82 – 3133.32 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 3308.97 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 2819.03 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 2869.26 – 3390.19 | KC: 3003.27 – 3256.18
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Bullish | RSI | 25 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 3073.17
Anchor: 2026-10-05 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+7.7%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/AZO
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 53.26B |
| P/E (TTM) | 21.69 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | -21.39 |
| EPS | 152.55 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 5.6% |
| Profit Margin | 12.7% |
| ROE | N/A |
| Debt/Equity | N/A |
| Current Ratio | 0.90 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.37 |
Trading Data
3308.97
Open
3308.97
Day High
3308.97
Day Low
161.2K
Volume (0.6x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)