Carnival Corporation Ltd.
CCL · Consumer Cyclical · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)
58
/ 100
Technical
75
Trend & RS
67
Momentum
70
Fundamental
44
Macro
23
Liquidity
56
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 75.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 67.4 | 30% |
| Momentum | 70.5 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 44.4 | 10% |
| Macro | 23.3 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 55.5 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 29.59 |
| Stop Loss | 27.25 (7.9%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 31.93 (+7.9%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 34.27 (+15.8%) |
| ATR(14) | 1.17 (4.0%) |
| Risk per Share | 2.34 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 78.9 | +1.15 | |
| Momentum | 70.5 | +0.82 | |
| Quality | 36.9 | -0.52 | |
| Composite | 62.1 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
4
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Fair Value
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.0 | 18.0 | -28% below |
| P/B Ratio | 2.8 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 1.5% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued
Intrinsic Value
29.90
vs
Market Price
29.59
Upside
+1.0%
| Margin of Safety | +1.0% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 10,480,629,847 |
| Terminal Value PV | 29,722,957,309 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 40,203,587,156 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 2,441,812,146 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 3.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
37.91%
Full Kelly
18.95%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 58/100. Estimated win rate 57%, avg win 8.5%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
61.42
RSI(14)
1.2965
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
43
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↑ RISING (+7.0% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | INLINE (Consumer Cyclical) |
| RS New High | Near 3-month high 1d since high |
| Sector Outperformance | +0.7% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 61.42 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 1.2965 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 25.19 / 26.93 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.24x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 34.03 |
| Bollinger Upper | 30.69 |
| SMA(200) | 26.93 |
| SMA(50) | 25.19 |
| SMA(20) | 27.62 |
| Current Price | 29.59 |
| Bollinger Lower | 24.55 |
| 52-Week Low | 21.45 |
| ATR(14) | 1.17 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKUP
Confidence
43%
Sign of Strength
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 1.0 |
Markup: 1.5 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.03x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.53x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.91x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.46x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.24x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 28.87 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 28.05 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 28.46 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 26.51 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 26.51 – 28.46 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 29.59 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 25.07 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 24.55 – 30.69 | KC: 25.95 – 29.29
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden Bullish | RSI | 10 | |
| Regular Bearish | RSI | 12 | |
| Regular Bearish | RSI | 18 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 26.35
Anchor: 2026-09-24 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+12.3%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/CCL
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 39.79B |
| P/E (TTM) | 13.04 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 2.82 |
| EPS | 2.27 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 3.5% |
| Profit Margin | 11.4% |
| ROE | 24.0% |
| Debt/Equity | 177.11 |
| Current Ratio | 0.27 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.5% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 2.46 |
Trading Data
29.59
Open
29.59
Day High
29.59
Day Low
25.13M
Volume (1.2x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)