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Carnival Corporation Ltd.

CCL · Consumer Cyclical · · USD
23.51 USD
+0.00 (0.13%)
● Updated 2026-09-07 21:04 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Long-term (Investment)

40
/ 100
Technical 0
Trend & RS 24
Momentum 31
Fundamental 44
Macro 64
Liquidity 46
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 0.0 10%
Trend & RS 24.3 10%
Momentum 30.8 5%
Fundamental 43.7 40%
Macro 64.4 15%
Liquidity 45.8 20%

Trade Setup

Entry 23.51
Stop Loss 21.87 (7.0%)
Target 1 (1:1) 25.15 (+7.0%)
Target 2 (2:1) 26.79 (+13.9%)
ATR(14) 0.82 (3.5%)
Risk per Share 1.64
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 82.1 +1.28
Momentum 30.8 -0.77
Quality 38.6 -0.46
Composite 50.5

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score 1.59 — Distress Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 10.6 18.0 -41% below
P/B Ratio 2.5 2.5 Inline
Dividend Yield 1.9% 2.0% Below avg

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Undervalued

Intrinsic Value
31.58
vs
Market Price
23.51
Upside
+34.3%
Margin of Safety +25.6%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)10,978,568,766
Terminal Value PV32,275,439,056
Total Enterprise Value43,254,007,822

Assumptions

Base FCF2,432,496,835
Growth Rate (5yr)5.3%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
25.0%
Full Kelly
12.5%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 40/100. Estimated win rate 52%, avg win 7.4%, avg loss 4.2%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

0
Bullish Signals
4
Bearish Signals
31.75
RSI(14)
-1.0613
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

23
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY ↓ FALLING (-18.5% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High No (54d since high)
Sector Outperformance -18.3% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 31.75 NEUTRAL
Macd -1.0613 BEARISH
Ma Cross 26.75 / 27.51 DEATH CROSS
Trend Short BELOW SMA50
Trend Long BELOW SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.88x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High34.03
Bollinger Upper29.34
SMA(200)27.51
SMA(50)26.75
SMA(20)25.87
Current Price23.51
Bollinger Lower22.41
52-Week Low23.08
ATR(14)0.82

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKDOWN Confidence
100%
Sign of Weakness
Acc: 0.0  |  Dist: 0.0  |  Markup: 0.0  |  Markdown: 3.5

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-31 Normal 1.7x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01 Normal 1.38x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 1.24x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 1.08x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 0.88x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 24.77 Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 26.57 Base line
Senkou A 25.67 Leading span A
Senkou B 26.57 Leading span B
Cloud 25.67 – 26.57 Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud 23.51 Below Cloud
Chikou Span 27.67 Bearish
Alignment Score 0/4 BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH FADING
BB: 22.41 – 29.34  |  KC: 24.69 – 27.06

Divergences (last 60 bars)

No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 23.54 Anchor: 2026-09-01 (52w Low) BELOW AVWAP -0.1%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/CCL

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap32.20B
P/E (TTM)10.59
Forward P/EN/A
P/B2.49
EPS2.22

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth5.3%
Profit Margin11.2%
ROE26.7%
Debt/Equity201.56
Current Ratio0.33
Dividend Yield1.9%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta2.31

Trading Data

23.51
Open
23.51
Day High
23.51
Day Low
16.17M
Volume (0.8x avg)

Recent News (8)

Will Carnival (CCL) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report?
Zacks · 2026-09-07
Carnival Stock Just Hit a 52-Week Low. Why It’s Time to Buy.
Barrons.com · 2026-09-04
3 Consumer Stocks with Open Questions
StockStory · 2026-09-04
3 S&P 500 Stocks That Fall Short
StockStory · 2026-09-03
Norwegian Cruise Line Just Dropped 16% in a Month: Sell Now, or Buy More?
24/7 Wall St. · 2026-09-02
Carnival (CCL) Launched A New Rewards Mastercard And Loyalty Program
Simply Wall St. · 2026-09-01
Carnival Revamps Loyalty Program to Encourage Spending
The Wall Street Journal · 2026-09-01
Carnival (CCL) Sees a More Significant Dip Than Broader Market: Some Facts to Know
Zacks · 2026-08-31

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —