CME Group Inc.

CME · Financial Services · · USD

281.29 USD

0.00 (-0.27%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 21:05 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 79

Momentum 50

Fundamental (0%) 78

Macro 64

Liquidity 46

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	40%
Trend & RS	79.1	20%
Momentum	50.5	20%
Fundamental	77.8	0%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	46.3	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	281.29
Stop Loss	268.97 (4.4%)
Target 1 (1:1)	293.61 (+4.4%)
Target 2 (2:1)	305.93 (+8.8%)

ATR(14)	6.16 (2.2%)
Risk per Share	12.32
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	51.2	+0.05
Momentum	50.5	+0.02
Quality	55.5	+0.22
Composite	52.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 15.87 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	23.9	18.0	+32% above
P/B Ratio	3.8	2.5	Above
Dividend Yield	1.9%	2.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

145.54

Market Price

281.29

Upside

-48.3%

Margin of Safety	-93.3%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	13,957,164,333
Terminal Value PV	38,377,220,537
Total Enterprise Value	52,334,384,870

Assumptions

Base FCF	3,391,522,011
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

38.04%

Full Kelly

19.02%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 58/100. Estimated win rate 57%, avg win 8.5%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

60.84

RSI(14)

6.3376

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+5.2% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	INLINE (Financial Services)
RS New High	No (3d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+1.7% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	60.84	NEUTRAL
Macd	6.3376	BEARISH
Ma Cross	258.44 / 275.16	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.86x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	329.16
Bollinger Upper	291.23
SMA(200)	275.16
SMA(50)	258.44
SMA(20)	274.58
Current Price	281.29
Bollinger Lower	257.93
52-Week Low	218.31
ATR(14)	6.16

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.73x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	0.87x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.29x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.91x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.86x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	281.56	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	273.37	Base line
Senkou A	277.46	Leading span A
Senkou B	254.10	Leading span B
Cloud	254.10 – 277.46	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	281.29	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	267.79	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH