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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

CMG · Consumer Cyclical · · USD
36.96 USD
0.00 (-1.62%)
● Updated 2026-09-07 21:03 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG BUY Short-term (Swing)

85
/ 100
Technical 100
Trend & RS 92
Momentum 72
Fundamental (0%) 78
Macro 64
Liquidity 42
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 100.0 40%
Trend & RS 92.3 20%
Momentum 71.8 20%
Fundamental 77.8 0%
Macro 64.4 15%
Liquidity 42.1 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 36.96
Stop Loss 34.54 (6.5%)
Target 1 (1:1) 39.38 (+6.5%)
Target 2 (2:1) 41.80 (+13.1%)
ATR(14) 1.21 (3.3%)
Risk per Share 2.42
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 20.4 -1.18
Momentum 71.8 +0.87
Quality 49.7 -0.01
Composite 47.3

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score 7.40 — Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 34.2 18.0 +90% above
P/B Ratio 21.3 2.5 Above

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
18.17
vs
Market Price
36.96
Upside
-50.8%
Margin of Safety -103.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)5,511,908,856
Terminal Value PV17,479,402,342
Total Enterprise Value22,991,311,198

Assumptions

Base FCF1,093,321,152
Growth Rate (5yr)9.3%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
54.01%
Full Kelly
27.01%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 85/100. Estimated win rate 65%, avg win 10.1%, avg loss 3.3%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

4
Bullish Signals
0
Bearish Signals
55.4
RSI(14)
1.0326
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

80
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
RS vs SPY ↑ RISING (+21.3% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High No (26d since high)
Sector Outperformance +21.4% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 55.4 NEUTRAL
Macd 1.0326 BULLISH
Ma Cross 34.87 / 34.85 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.67x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High42.82
Bollinger Upper40.32
SMA(200)34.85
SMA(50)34.87
SMA(20)35.67
Current Price36.96
Bollinger Lower31.03
52-Week Low28.04
ATR(14)1.21

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0  |  Dist: 0.0  |  Markup: 2.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-31 Normal 1.16x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01 Normal 0.72x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 0.8x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 0.61x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 0.67x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 37.71 Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 35.28 Base line
Senkou A 36.50 Leading span A
Senkou B 35.09 Leading span B
Cloud 35.09 – 36.50 Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud 36.96 Above Cloud
Chikou Span 37.22 Bearish
Alignment Score 3/4 BULLISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BULLISH FADING
BB: 31.03 – 40.32  |  KC: 34.0 – 37.35

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Hidden Bullish RSI 19

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 33.76 Anchor: 2026-06-04 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +9.5%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/CMG

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap46.77B
P/E (TTM)34.22
Forward P/EN/A
P/B21.30
EPS1.08

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth9.3%
Profit Margin11.4%
ROE49.6%
Debt/Equity246.35
Current Ratio0.71
Dividend YieldN/A
Payout RatioN/A
Beta0.94

Trading Data

36.96
Open
36.96
Day High
36.96
Day Low
9.78M
Volume (0.5x avg)

Recent News (8)

If You Invested $1000 in Chipotle Mexican Grill a Decade Ago, This is How Much It'd Be Worth Now
Zacks · 2026-09-07
McDonald's (MCD) Exit From A 90% Restaurant Stake Still Haunts Investors
Simply Wall St. · 2026-09-06
McDonald's Once Owned 90% Of A Popular Restaurant Chain. Selling It Left Billions On The Table
Money Digest · 2026-09-06
How Investors May Respond To Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Using South Korea As Its Asian Testbed
Simply Wall St. · 2026-09-05
Chipotle (CMG) Enters Asia With First Seoul Restaurant And A New Growth Test
Simply Wall St. · 2026-09-04
Why Is Dutch Bros (BROS) Down 13.3% Since Last Earnings Report?
Zacks · 2026-09-04
McDonald's Trades at 19.15X P/E: Is This a Discounted Opportunity?
Zacks · 2026-09-04
CAVA Stock Slips 15% in 3 Months: Should You Buy, Sell or Hold?
Zacks · 2026-09-04

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —