Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
CMG · Consumer Cyclical · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Short-term (Swing)
60
/ 100
Technical
75
Trend & RS
58
Momentum
61
Fundamental (0%)
78
Macro
24
Liquidity
61
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 75.0 | 40% |
| Trend & RS | 58.2 | 20% |
| Momentum | 60.6 | 20% |
| Fundamental | 77.8 | 0% |
| Macro | 23.8 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 60.8 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 34.55 |
| Stop Loss | 32.13 (7.0%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 36.97 (+7.0%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 39.39 (+14.0%) |
| ATR(14) | 1.21 (3.5%) |
| Risk per Share | 2.42 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 22.2 | -1.11 | |
| Momentum | 60.6 | +0.42 | |
| Quality | 50.2 | +0.01 | |
| Composite | 44.3 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
7.05
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 33.1 | 18.0 | +84% above |
| P/B Ratio | 18.2 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
18.23
vs
Market Price
35.40
Upside
-48.5%
| Margin of Safety | -94.2% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 5,504,158,953 |
| Terminal Value PV | 17,550,378,897 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 23,054,537,850 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 1,082,818,600 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 9.6% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
39.71%
Full Kelly
19.85%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 60/100. Estimated win rate 58%, avg win 8.6%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
63.92
RSI(14)
0.6222
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
45
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+12.5% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | INLINE (Consumer Cyclical) |
| RS New High | No (46d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | +6.3% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 63.92 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 0.6222 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 32.76 / 33.91 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 0.01x | LOW |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 41.42 |
| Bollinger Upper | 35.61 |
| SMA(200) | 33.91 |
| SMA(50) | 32.76 |
| SMA(20) | 30.73 |
| Current Price | 35.40 |
| Bollinger Lower | 25.86 |
| 52-Week Low | 27.31 |
| ATR(14) | 1.21 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
ACCUMULATION E
Confidence
50%
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 1.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 0.91x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.73x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.0x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.16x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-06 | No Demand | 0.01x | Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 31.68 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 31.39 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 31.54 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 33.12 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 31.54 – 33.12 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 34.55 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 32.36 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 3/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 25.86 – 35.61 | KC: 29.01 – 32.45
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 31.11
Anchor: 2026-10-23 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+11.1%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/CMG
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 44.78B |
| P/E (TTM) | 33.08 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 18.24 |
| EPS | 1.07 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 9.6% |
| Profit Margin | 10.8% |
| ROE | 48.5% |
| Debt/Equity | 228.05 |
| Current Ratio | 0.81 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.99 |
Trading Data
35.40
Open
35.40
Day High
35.40
Day Low
24.97M
Volume (1.4x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)