CMS Energy Corporation

CMS · Utilities · · USD

68.46 USD

0.00 (-0.19%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 20:06 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 25

Trend & RS 31

Momentum 39

Fundamental 34

Macro 64

Liquidity 47

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	25.0	20%
Trend & RS	31.2	30%
Momentum	39.1	15%
Fundamental	34.0	10%
Macro	64.4	20%
Liquidity	46.7	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	68.46
Stop Loss	66.22 (3.3%)
Target 1 (1:1)	70.70 (+3.3%)
Target 2 (2:1)	72.94 (+6.5%)

ATR(14)	1.12 (1.6%)
Risk per Share	2.24
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	68.4	+0.74
Momentum	39.1	-0.44
Quality	31.4	-0.75
Composite	46.3

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 4 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 1.18 — Distress Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	20.6	16.0	+28% above
P/B Ratio	2.2	1.8	Above
Dividend Yield	3.3%	3.5%	Below avg

Comparing against Utilities median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

41.11

Market Price

68.46

Upside

-40.0%

Margin of Safety	-66.5%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	3,437,804,389
Terminal Value PV	9,452,735,103
Total Enterprise Value	12,890,539,492

Assumptions

Base FCF	835,369,490
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

23.76%

Full Kelly

11.88%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 39/100. Estimated win rate 52%, avg win 7.3%, avg loss 4.2%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

38.77

RSI(14)

-1.0126

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-8.9% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Utilities)
RS New High	No (49d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-2.4% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	38.77	NEUTRAL
Macd	-1.0126	BULLISH
Ma Cross	72.01 / 72.51	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.93x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	80.36
Bollinger Upper	71.58
SMA(200)	72.51
SMA(50)	72.01
SMA(20)	69.28
Current Price	68.46
Bollinger Lower	66.97
52-Week Low	67.19
ATR(14)	1.12

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.02x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	0.81x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.83x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.95x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.93x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	68.30	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	69.81	Base line
Senkou A	69.06	Leading span A
Senkou B	72.71	Leading span B
Cloud	69.06 – 72.71	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	68.46	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	71.41	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH