Chevron Corporation
CVX · Energy · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)
64
/ 100
Technical
50
Trend & RS
84
Momentum
62
Fundamental
78
Macro
24
Liquidity
67
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 50.0 | 10% |
| Trend & RS | 83.5 | 10% |
| Momentum | 62.2 | 5% |
| Fundamental | 77.8 | 40% |
| Macro | 23.8 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 66.7 | 20% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 212.93 |
| Stop Loss | 201.97 (5.2%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 223.89 (+5.2%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 234.85 (+10.3%) |
| ATR(14) | 5.48 (2.6%) |
| Risk per Share | 10.96 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 79.3 | +1.17 | |
| Momentum | 62.2 | +0.49 | |
| Quality | 43.8 | -0.25 | |
| Composite | 61.8 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✗
✗
✗
✓
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
8.83
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.6 | 10.0 | +56% above |
| P/B Ratio | 2.2 | 1.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 3.3% | 4.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Energy median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued
Intrinsic Value
424.51
vs
Market Price
212.93
Upside
+99.4%
| Margin of Safety | +49.8% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 163,327,477,124 |
| Terminal Value PV | 664,894,052,286 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 828,221,529,410 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 21,258,096,000 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 25.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
42.35%
Full Kelly
21.17%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 64/100. Estimated win rate 59%, avg win 8.9%, avg loss 3.7%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary BUY
2
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
40.93
RSI(14)
2.8237
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING
83
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
| RS vs SPY | ↑ RISING (+20.1% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Energy) |
| RS New High | No (4d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | +9.6% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING:
Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 40.93 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 2.8237 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 214.64 / 192.44 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.28x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 236.48 |
| Bollinger Upper | 237.95 |
| SMA(200) | 192.44 |
| SMA(50) | 214.64 |
| SMA(20) | 224.36 |
| Current Price | 212.93 |
| Bollinger Lower | 210.77 |
| 52-Week Low | 146.49 |
| ATR(14) | 5.48 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
DISTRIBUTION C
Confidence
100%
Upthrust (potential)
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 2.5 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.35x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.13x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.91x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.42x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.28x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 224.55 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 219.22 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 221.88 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 217.15 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 217.15 – 221.88 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 212.93 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 207.10 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 3/4 | NEUTRAL |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 210.77 – 237.95 | KC: 216.42 – 232.3
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Bearish | RSI | 5 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 187.09
Anchor: 2025-12-16 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+13.8%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/CVX
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 415.43B |
| P/E (TTM) | 15.63 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 2.20 |
| EPS | 13.62 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 34.8% |
| Profit Margin | 11.9% |
| ROE | N/A |
| Debt/Equity | 18.96 |
| Current Ratio | N/A |
| Dividend Yield | 3.3% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.45 |
Trading Data
212.93
Open
212.93
Day High
212.93
Day Low
10.17M
Volume (1.2x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)