Chevron Corporation

CVX · Energy · · USD

208.60 USD

0.00 (-1.29%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 20:36 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG BUY Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 100

Trend & RS 97

Momentum 66

Fundamental (0%) 83

Macro 64

Liquidity 54

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	100.0	40%
Trend & RS	96.8	20%
Momentum	65.9	20%
Fundamental	83.3	0%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	53.8	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	208.60
Stop Loss	200.76 (3.8%)
Target 1 (1:1)	216.44 (+3.8%)
Target 2 (2:1)	224.28 (+7.5%)

ATR(14)	3.92 (1.9%)
Risk per Share	7.84
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	75.0	+1.00
Momentum	65.9	+0.64
Quality	35.2	-0.59
Composite	58.7

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 8.61 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	20.1	10.0	+101% above
P/B Ratio	2.1	1.5	Above
Dividend Yield	3.4%	4.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Energy median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued

Intrinsic Value

323.84

Market Price

208.60

Upside

+55.2%

Margin of Safety	+35.6%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	125,271,305,087
Terminal Value PV	509,970,196,943
Total Enterprise Value	635,241,502,030

Assumptions

Base FCF	16,304,846,413
Growth Rate (5yr)	25.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

54.17%

Full Kelly

27.09%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 85/100. Estimated win rate 65%, avg win 10.1%, avg loss 3.3%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

64.87

RSI(14)

5.2752

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+7.6% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Energy)
RS New High	No (3d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-7.4% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	64.87	NEUTRAL
Macd	5.2752	BULLISH
Ma Cross	189.96 / 178.23	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.7x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	214.71
Bollinger Upper	213.89
SMA(200)	178.23
SMA(50)	189.96
SMA(20)	202.64
Current Price	208.60
Bollinger Lower	191.38
52-Week Low	146.49
ATR(14)	3.92

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.55x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.1x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.97x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.86x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.7x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	205.51	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	198.73	Base line
Senkou A	202.12	Leading span A
Senkou B	188.28	Leading span B
Cloud	188.28 – 202.12	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	208.60	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	195.13	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH