Duke Energy Corporation
DUK · Utilities · · USDFahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)
65
/ 100
Technical
75
Trend & RS
79
Momentum
58
Fundamental
38
Macro
54
Liquidity
63
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 75.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 79.1 | 30% |
| Momentum | 57.7 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 38.1 | 10% |
| Macro | 54.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 63.3 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 127.78 |
| Stop Loss | 123.22 (3.6%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 132.34 (+3.6%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 136.90 (+7.1%) |
| ATR(14) | 2.28 (1.8%) |
| Risk per Share | 4.56 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 74.1 | +0.96 | |
| Momentum | 57.7 | +0.31 | |
| Quality | 32.6 | -0.70 | |
| Composite | 54.8 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
1.03
—
Distress Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.7 | 16.0 | +17% above |
| P/B Ratio | 1.8 | 1.8 | Inline |
| Dividend Yield | 3.4% | 3.5% | Below avg |
Comparing against Utilities median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
102.50
vs
Market Price
127.78
Upside
-19.8%
| Margin of Safety | -24.7% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 19,905,995,405 |
| Terminal Value PV | 60,016,485,463 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 79,922,480,868 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 4,254,088,468 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 6.6% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
42.85%
Full Kelly
21.43%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 65/100. Estimated win rate 60%, avg win 8.9%, avg loss 3.7%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
62.17
RSI(14)
2.8224
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING
72
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↑ RISING (+11.0% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Utilities) |
| RS New High | No (1d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | +2.1% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING:
Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 62.17 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 2.8224 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 119.83 / 123.33 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.38x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 134.49 |
| Bollinger Upper | 131.64 |
| SMA(200) | 123.33 |
| SMA(50) | 119.83 |
| SMA(20) | 123.8 |
| Current Price | 127.78 |
| Bollinger Lower | 115.96 |
| 52-Week Low | 112.40 |
| ATR(14) | 2.28 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
DISTRIBUTION C
Confidence
78%
Upthrust (potential)
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 3.5 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 0.96x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.86x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.65x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Upthrust | 2.03x | High volume up-bar closing near low — failed breakout (Upthrust) |
| 2026-11-06 | Normal | 1.38x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 128.22 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 123.14 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 125.68 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 122.70 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 122.70 – 125.68 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 127.78 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 114.13 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 115.96 – 131.64 | KC: 120.23 – 127.37
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 122.33
Anchor: 2025-12-10 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+4.5%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/DUK
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 99.63B |
| P/E (TTM) | 18.74 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 1.83 |
| EPS | 6.82 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 6.6% |
| Profit Margin | 16.2% |
| ROE | 10.1% |
| Debt/Equity | 162.98 |
| Current Ratio | 0.68 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.4% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.31 |
Trading Data
127.78
Open
127.78
Day High
127.78
Day Low
5.51M
Volume (1.3x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)