Ecolab Inc.
ECL · Basic Materials · · USDFahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)
72
/ 100
Technical
100
Trend & RS
84
Momentum
83
Fundamental
56
Macro
24
Liquidity
75
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 100.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 83.8 | 30% |
| Momentum | 83.1 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 55.6 | 10% |
| Macro | 23.6 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 75.2 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 305.83 |
| Stop Loss | 291.89 (4.6%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 319.77 (+4.6%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 333.71 (+9.1%) |
| ATR(14) | 6.97 (2.3%) |
| Risk per Share | 13.94 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 18.6 | -1.25 | |
| Momentum | 75.6 | +1.02 | |
| Quality | 41.0 | -0.36 | |
| Composite | 45.1 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 41.6 | 18.0 | +131% above |
| P/B Ratio | 8.2 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 95.0% | 2.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Basic Materials median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
142.10
vs
Market Price
305.83
Upside
-53.5%
| Margin of Safety | -115.2% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 9,124,443,295 |
| Terminal Value PV | 30,729,669,385 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 39,854,112,680 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 1,649,150,492 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 12.7% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
46.7%
Full Kelly
23.35%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 72/100. Estimated win rate 61%, avg win 9.3%, avg loss 3.6%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
4
Bullish Signals
0
Bearish Signals
63.32
RSI(14)
7.2767
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
59
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↑ RISING (+12.5% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Basic Materials) |
| RS New High | ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal |
| Sector Outperformance | +9.2% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 63.32 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 7.2767 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 283.49 / 275.48 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.6x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 318.93 |
| Bollinger Upper | 312.08 |
| SMA(200) | 275.48 |
| SMA(50) | 283.49 |
| SMA(20) | 293.63 |
| Current Price | 305.83 |
| Bollinger Lower | 275.17 |
| 52-Week Low | 243.15 |
| ATR(14) | 6.97 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKUP
Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 2.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.06x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 0.91x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.77x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.67x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.6x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 301.46 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 293.19 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 297.33 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 293.19 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 293.19 – 297.33 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 305.83 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 271.26 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 275.17 – 312.08 | KC: 283.61 – 303.64
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Bearish | RSI | 11 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 275.90
Anchor: 2026-05-19 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+10.8%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/ECL
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 85.78B |
| P/E (TTM) | 41.61 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 8.23 |
| EPS | 7.35 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 12.7% |
| Profit Margin | 12.0% |
| ROE | 20.8% |
| Debt/Equity | 133.33 |
| Current Ratio | 1.11 |
| Dividend Yield | 95.0% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.86 |
Trading Data
305.83
Open
305.83
Day High
305.83
Day Low
2.63M
Volume (1.9x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)