Enphase Energy, Inc.
ENPH · Technology · · USDFahodi Score STRONG SELL Mid-term (Position)
26
/ 100
Technical
25
Trend & RS
17
Momentum
9
Fundamental
73
Macro
22
Liquidity
66
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 25.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 16.6 | 30% |
| Momentum | 9.1 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 73.1 | 10% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 65.8 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 28.97 |
| Stop Loss | 24.21 (16.4%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 33.73 (+16.4%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 38.49 (+32.9%) |
| ATR(14) | 2.38 (8.2%) |
| Risk per Share | 4.76 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 29.3 | -0.83 | |
| Momentum | 8.2 | -1.67 | |
| Quality | 57.1 | +0.28 | |
| Composite | 31.5 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✗
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
4.53
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Fair Value
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 43.2 | 28.0 | +54% above |
| P/B Ratio | 3.1 | 6.0 | Below |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 0.8% | Below avg |
Comparing against Technology median multiples.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
7.17
vs
Market Price
28.97
Upside
-75.2%
| Margin of Safety | -304.0% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 284,339,367 |
| Terminal Value PV | 664,464,116 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 948,803,483 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 70,920,452 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 2.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
12.55%
Full Kelly
6.27%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 26/100. Estimated win rate 48%, avg win 6.6%, avg loss 4.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG SELL
1
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
44.72
RSI(14)
-1.2454
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS
4
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↓ FALLING (-25.8% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Technology) |
| RS New High | No (61d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -36.5% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS:
Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 44.72 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | -1.2454 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 32.97 / 40.82 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.38x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 73.74 |
| Bollinger Upper | 34.58 |
| SMA(200) | 40.82 |
| SMA(50) | 32.97 |
| SMA(20) | 30.02 |
| Current Price | 28.97 |
| Bollinger Lower | 25.46 |
| 52-Week Low | 23.83 |
| ATR(14) | 2.38 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
DISTRIBUTION C
Confidence
56%
Upthrust (potential)
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 2.5 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 2.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 0.89x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.08x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.1x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Upthrust | 2.08x | High volume up-bar closing near low — failed breakout (Upthrust) |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.38x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 29.06 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 29.06 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 29.06 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 31.68 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 29.06 – 31.68 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 28.97 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 32.82 | Bearish |
| Alignment Score | 0/4 | BEARISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 25.46 – 34.58 | KC: 26.59 – 33.45
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden Bearish | RSI | 13 | |
| Regular Bullish | RSI | 17 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 27.77
Anchor: 2026-10-28 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+4.3%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/ENPH
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 3.83B |
| P/E (TTM) | 43.24 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 3.09 |
| EPS | 0.67 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -28.5% |
| Profit Margin | 7.5% |
| ROE | 8.1% |
| Debt/Equity | 49.48 |
| Current Ratio | 4.09 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 1.45 |
Trading Data
28.97
Open
28.97
Day High
28.97
Day Low
11.34M
Volume (2.1x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)