Elastic N.V.
ESTC · Technology · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)
65
/ 100
Technical
60
Trend & RS
76
Momentum
63
Fundamental
89
Macro
24
Liquidity
44
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 60.0 | 10% |
| Trend & RS | 76.0 | 10% |
| Momentum | 62.8 | 5% |
| Fundamental | 88.9 | 40% |
| Macro | 23.8 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 44.0 | 20% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 84.20 |
| Stop Loss | 74.60 (11.4%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 93.80 (+11.4%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 103.40 (+22.8%) |
| ATR(14) | 4.80 (5.7%) |
| Risk per Share | 9.60 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 45.5 | -0.18 | |
| Momentum | 62.8 | +0.51 | |
| Quality | 61.8 | +0.47 | |
| Composite | 56.7 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
7
/9 —
Strong
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
9.44
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Fair Value
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.1 | 28.0 | -14% below |
| P/B Ratio | 6.8 | 6.0 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 0.8% | Below avg |
Comparing against Technology median multiples.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
64.07
vs
Market Price
84.20
Upside
-23.9%
| Margin of Safety | -31.4% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 1,687,410,785 |
| Terminal Value PV | 5,039,495,432 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 6,726,906,217 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 293,975,584 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 15.1% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
42.47%
Full Kelly
21.24%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 65/100. Estimated win rate 59%, avg win 8.9%, avg loss 3.7%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary BUY
3
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
35.75
RSI(14)
-0.162
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
89
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+17.1% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Technology) |
| RS New High | No (8d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | +6.9% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 35.75 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | -0.162 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 92.8 / 67.6 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | LOWER BAND | |
| Volume | 1.11x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 108.00 |
| Bollinger Upper | 108.68 |
| SMA(200) | 67.6 |
| SMA(50) | 92.8 |
| SMA(20) | 96.67 |
| Current Price | 84.20 |
| Bollinger Lower | 84.66 |
| 52-Week Low | 42.05 |
| ATR(14) | 4.8 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
DISTRIBUTION A
Confidence
75%
Buying Climax
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 3.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 0.75x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.23x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.02x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 0.98x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.11x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 95.53 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 95.53 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 95.53 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 93.40 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 93.40 – 95.53 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 84.20 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 92.31 | Bearish |
| Alignment Score | 1/4 | BEARISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 84.66 – 108.68 | KC: 89.14 – 104.2
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 73.25
Anchor: 2026-04-10 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+14.9%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/ESTC
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 8.84B |
| P/E (TTM) | 24.06 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 6.82 |
| EPS | 3.50 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 15.1% |
| Profit Margin | 20.8% |
| ROE | 33.1% |
| Debt/Equity | 45.94 |
| Current Ratio | 1.81 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.96 |
Trading Data
84.20
Open
84.20
Day High
84.20
Day Low
2.20M
Volume (0.9x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)