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Elastic N.V.

ESTC · Technology · · USD
91.81 USD
0.00 (-4.49%)
● Updated 2026-09-07 20:07 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG BUY Short-term (Swing)

90
/ 100
Technical 100
Trend & RS 95
Momentum 96
Fundamental (0%) 89
Macro 64
Liquidity 43
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 100.0 40%
Trend & RS 94.7 20%
Momentum 96.0 20%
Fundamental 88.9 0%
Macro 64.4 15%
Liquidity 42.6 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 91.81
Stop Loss 81.25 (11.5%)
Target 1 (1:1) 102.37 (+11.5%)
Target 2 (2:1) 112.93 (+23.0%)
ATR(14) 5.28 (5.8%)
Risk per Share 10.56
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 39.9 -0.41
Momentum 96.0 +1.84
Quality 61.8 +0.47
Composite 65.9

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score 10.25 — Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 26.2 28.0 Inline
P/B Ratio 7.4 6.0 Above

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
64.07
vs
Market Price
91.81
Upside
-30.2%
Margin of Safety -43.3%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)1,687,410,785
Terminal Value PV5,039,495,432
Total Enterprise Value6,726,906,217

Assumptions

Base FCF293,975,584
Growth Rate (5yr)15.1%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)10.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
56.79%
Full Kelly
28.4%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 90/100. Estimated win rate 67%, avg win 10.4%, avg loss 3.2%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

4
Bullish Signals
0
Bearish Signals
60.12
RSI(14)
6.2799
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

86
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
RS vs SPY ↑ RISING (+43.9% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector OUTPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High No (5d since high)
Sector Outperformance +54.8% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 60.12 NEUTRAL
Macd 6.2799 BULLISH
Ma Cross 71.84 / 63.84 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.61x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High108.00
Bollinger Upper99.82
SMA(200)63.84
SMA(50)71.84
SMA(20)86.21
Current Price91.81
Bollinger Lower72.59
52-Week Low42.05
ATR(14)5.28

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0  |  Dist: 0.0  |  Markup: 2.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-31 Normal 1.85x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01 Normal 0.89x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 0.75x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 1.21x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 0.61x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 93.40 Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 85.60 Base line
Senkou A 89.50 Leading span A
Senkou B 80.52 Leading span B
Cloud 80.52 – 89.50 Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud 91.81 Above Cloud
Chikou Span 65.79 Bullish
Alignment Score 4/4 BULLISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BULLISH FADING
BB: 72.59 – 99.82  |  KC: 78.23 – 94.19

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Regular Bearish RSI 6
Regular Bearish MACD 6

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 66.25 Anchor: 2026-04-10 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +38.6%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/ESTC

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap9.64B
P/E (TTM)26.23
Forward P/EN/A
P/B7.44
EPS3.50

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth15.1%
Profit Margin20.8%
ROE33.1%
Debt/Equity45.94
Current Ratio1.81
Dividend YieldN/A
Payout RatioN/A
Beta1.04

Trading Data

91.81
Open
91.81
Day High
91.81
Day Low
1.95M
Volume (0.9x avg)

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Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —