Exelon Corporation

EXC · Utilities · · USD

43.64 USD

0.00 (-1.07%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 22:06 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 45

Momentum 40

Fundamental 38

Macro 64

Liquidity 53

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	10%
Trend & RS	45.2	10%
Momentum	40.3	5%
Fundamental	37.9	40%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	53.0	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	43.64
Stop Loss	42.00 (3.8%)
Target 1 (1:1)	45.28 (+3.8%)
Target 2 (2:1)	46.92 (+7.5%)

ATR(14)	0.82 (1.9%)
Risk per Share	1.64
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	77.0	+1.08
Momentum	40.3	-0.39
Quality	32.7	-0.69
Composite	50.0

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 1.01 — Distress Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	16.0	16.0	Inline
P/B Ratio	1.5	1.8	Below
Dividend Yield	3.9%	3.5%	Above avg

Comparing against Utilities median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued

Intrinsic Value

46.91

Market Price

43.64

Upside

+7.5%

Margin of Safety	+7.0%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	11,489,897,110
Terminal Value PV	36,835,762,790
Total Enterprise Value	48,325,659,900

Assumptions

Base FCF	2,241,832,632
Growth Rate (5yr)	9.9%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

30.27%

Full Kelly

15.13%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 47/100. Estimated win rate 54%, avg win 7.8%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

41.75

RSI(14)

-0.4958

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-8.4% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	INLINE (Utilities)
RS New High	No (49d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-1.9% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	41.75	NEUTRAL
Macd	-0.4958	BULLISH
Ma Cross	45.36 / 45.09	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	1.31x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	50.65
Bollinger Upper	45.55
SMA(200)	45.09
SMA(50)	45.36
SMA(20)	44.19
Current Price	43.64
Bollinger Lower	42.83
52-Week Low	42.58
ATR(14)	0.82

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence

50%

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 1.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.48x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.15x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.86x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	1.83x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	1.31x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	43.40	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	44.31	Base line
Senkou A	43.86	Leading span A
Senkou B	45.36	Leading span B
Cloud	43.86 – 45.36	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	43.64	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	45.39	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH