Exelon Corporation
EXC · Utilities · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Short-term (Swing)
62
/ 100
Technical
75
Trend & RS
66
Momentum
62
Fundamental (0%)
38
Macro
24
Liquidity
67
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 75.0 | 40% |
| Trend & RS | 65.9 | 20% |
| Momentum | 61.7 | 20% |
| Fundamental | 38.3 | 0% |
| Macro | 23.6 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 66.8 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 46.53 |
| Stop Loss | 44.71 (3.9%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 48.35 (+3.9%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 50.17 (+7.8%) |
| ATR(14) | 0.91 (2.0%) |
| Risk per Share | 1.82 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 74.5 | +0.98 | |
| Momentum | 61.7 | +0.47 | |
| Quality | 31.2 | -0.75 | |
| Composite | 55.8 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
1.05
—
Distress Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Fair Value
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.2 | 16.0 | +14% above |
| P/B Ratio | 1.6 | 1.8 | Below |
| Dividend Yield | 3.6% | 3.5% | Above avg |
Comparing against Utilities median multiples.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued
Intrinsic Value
42.89
vs
Market Price
46.53
Upside
-7.8%
| Margin of Safety | -8.5% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 10,655,818,968 |
| Terminal Value PV | 33,730,141,219 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 44,385,960,187 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 2,119,468,413 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 9.2% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
41.01%
Full Kelly
20.5%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 62/100. Estimated win rate 59%, avg win 8.7%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
69.42
RSI(14)
1.072
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
64
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+8.0% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | INLINE (Utilities) |
| RS New High | ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal |
| Sector Outperformance | -1.1% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 69.42 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 1.072 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 42.96 / 45.04 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.53x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 50.65 |
| Bollinger Upper | 47.41 |
| SMA(200) | 45.04 |
| SMA(50) | 42.96 |
| SMA(20) | 44.17 |
| Current Price | 46.53 |
| Bollinger Lower | 40.93 |
| 52-Week Low | 39.73 |
| ATR(14) | 0.91 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKUP
Confidence
43%
Sign of Strength
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 1.0 |
Markup: 1.5 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Upthrust | 2.28x | High volume up-bar closing near low — failed breakout (Upthrust) |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.38x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.95x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.56x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.53x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 45.62 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 43.45 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 44.53 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 43.41 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 43.41 – 44.53 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 46.53 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 40.47 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH
BB: 40.93 – 47.41 | KC: 42.79 – 45.54
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 43.16
Anchor: 2026-09-25 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+7.8%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/EXC
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 48.15B |
| P/E (TTM) | 18.18 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 1.60 |
| EPS | 2.56 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 9.2% |
| Profit Margin | 10.2% |
| ROE | 9.1% |
| Debt/Equity | 176.53 |
| Current Ratio | 1.03 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.6% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.34 |
Trading Data
46.53
Open
46.53
Day High
46.53
Day Low
12.42M
Volume (1.6x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)