Freeport-McMoRan Inc.
FCX · Basic Materials · · USDFahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)
46
/ 100
Technical
50
Trend & RS
43
Momentum
34
Fundamental
89
Macro
24
Liquidity
82
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 50.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 43.2 | 30% |
| Momentum | 34.0 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 88.9 | 10% |
| Macro | 23.6 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 82.3 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 57.90 |
| Stop Loss | 52.08 (10.1%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 63.72 (+10.1%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 69.54 (+20.1%) |
| ATR(14) | 2.91 (5.0%) |
| Risk per Share | 5.82 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 64.3 | +0.57 | |
| Momentum | 30.9 | -0.76 | |
| Quality | 46.9 | -0.12 | |
| Composite | 47.4 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
7
/9 —
Strong
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
5.95
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.3 | 18.0 | +35% above |
| P/B Ratio | 3.9 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Basic Materials median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
38.25
vs
Market Price
57.90
Upside
-33.9%
| Margin of Safety | -51.4% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 13,372,805,967 |
| Terminal Value PV | 41,556,695,525 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 54,929,501,492 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 2,734,177,364 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 8.2% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
29.36%
Full Kelly
14.68%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 46/100. Estimated win rate 54%, avg win 7.7%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary BUY
3
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
25.66
RSI(14)
-2.635
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING
45
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↓ FALLING (-11.7% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Basic Materials) |
| RS New High | No (51d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -14.9% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAKENING:
Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 25.66 | OVERSOLD |
| Macd | -2.635 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 70.11 / 64.98 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | LOWER BAND | |
| Volume | 2.33x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 80.24 |
| Bollinger Upper | 75.11 |
| SMA(200) | 64.98 |
| SMA(50) | 70.11 |
| SMA(20) | 66.84 |
| Current Price | 57.90 |
| Bollinger Lower | 58.57 |
| 52-Week Low | 38.75 |
| ATR(14) | 2.91 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKDOWN
Confidence
100%
Sign of Weakness
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 3.5
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.53x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 0.97x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.71x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 0.97x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Stopping Volume | 2.33x | High volume down-bar closing near low — potential climax (Stopping Volume) |
Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 61.70 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 65.30 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 63.50 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 68.41 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 63.50 – 68.41 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 57.90 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 69.13 | Bearish |
| Alignment Score | 0/4 | BEARISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 58.57 – 75.11 | KC: 62.65 – 71.03
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden Bullish | RSI | 26 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 60.82
Anchor: 2025-11-06 (52w Low)
BELOW AVWAP
-4.8%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 83.15B |
| P/E (TTM) | 24.33 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 3.86 |
| EPS | 2.38 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 8.2% |
| Profit Margin | 13.0% |
| ROE | 15.7% |
| Debt/Equity | 30.81 |
| Current Ratio | 2.02 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 1.37 |
Trading Data
57.90
Open
57.90
Day High
57.90
Day Low
27.21M
Volume (2.2x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)