Johnson & Johnson

JNJ · Healthcare · · USD

256.98 USD

0.00 (-0.82%)

● Updated 2026-07-11 20:10 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 100

Trend & RS 94

Momentum 71

Fundamental 83

Macro 75

Liquidity 56

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	100.0	20%
Trend & RS	93.5	30%
Momentum	70.6	15%
Fundamental	83.3	10%
Macro	74.8	20%
Liquidity	55.6	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	256.98
Stop Loss	244.96 (4.7%)
Target 1 (1:1)	269.00 (+4.7%)
Target 2 (2:1)	281.02 (+9.3%)

ATR(14)	6.01 (2.3%)
Risk per Share	12.02
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	36.5	-0.54
Momentum	70.6	+0.83
Quality	50.5	+0.02
Composite	52.5

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 7.91 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	29.8	22.0	+35% above
P/B Ratio	7.6	4.0	Above
Dividend Yield	2.1%	1.5%	Above avg

Comparing against Healthcare median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

148.82

Market Price

256.98

Upside

-42.1%

Margin of Safety	-72.7%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	85,178,300,851
Terminal Value PV	273,075,350,911
Total Enterprise Value	358,253,651,762

Assumptions

Base FCF	16,619,425,968
Growth Rate (5yr)	9.9%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

54.07%

Full Kelly

27.03%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 85/100. Estimated win rate 65%, avg win 10.1%, avg loss 3.3%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

59.92

RSI(14)

7.8387

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (-4.2% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Healthcare)
RS New High	No (3d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+6.7% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	59.92	NEUTRAL
Macd	7.8387	BULLISH
Ma Cross	235.64 / 219.19	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.73x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	269.43
Bollinger Upper	272.43
SMA(200)	219.19
SMA(50)	235.64
SMA(20)	247.95
Current Price	256.98
Bollinger Lower	223.48
52-Week Low	154.80
ATR(14)	6.01

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-06	Normal	0.76x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	1.02x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	0.76x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.72x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10	Normal	0.73x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	260.25	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	245.72	Base line
Senkou A	252.99	Leading span A
Senkou B	244.27	Leading span B
Cloud	244.27 – 252.99	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	256.98	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	223.24	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH